As talks between South Korea and North Korea begin on Tuesday, we should be wary of any supposed breakthroughs.
After all, these discussions aren’t about compromises for peace, but rather are a tool of Chinese and North Korean efforts to separate Seoul from Washington. As I’ve documented, both Beijing and Pyongyang are engaged in a coordinated mission to persuade South Korea to oppose tougher U.S.-led action against North Korea. They hope that if Seoul refuses the U.S. pressure-centric strategy, Washington will learn to live with North Korea’s missile program.
They also know that President Moon Jae-in of South Korea is a malleable leader who is desperate to avoid a military showdown at nearly any cost.
In turn, we should expect this week’s talks to render gifts unto Moon.
Attempting to persuade Moon to further distance himself from the Trump administration, the North Koreans will probably offer to recommence limited trade and transport links between the two nations and to send a delegation to next month’s Olympics. They’ll hope Moon will proclaim new optimism and will resist new U.S. efforts to impose tighter sanctions on Kim Jong Un’s regime.
At the same time, North Korea will keep developing its ballistic missile technology. Specifically, its ability to put a re-entry survivable nuclear warhead onto an intercontinental missile.
The U.S. must resist this gambit.
First, President Trump should immediately sanction Chinese banks that are acting as financial clearinghouses for Kim’s decrepit government. Doing so would grab Beijing’s attention and force it to reconsider its current approach of playing Trump.
Second, Trump should pledge to keep escalating U.S. diplomatic and military pressure until North Korea suspends missile tests and comes to the diplomatic table in a constructive spirit. Here, Trump should express his frustration to Moon and note that South Korea’s rapprochement with the North does not bind the U.S. in any way. The situation on the Korean peninsula is no longer simply about South Korean security, it’s about the threat of a nuclear attack on the United States.
All of this leads me to a simple supposition: As talks begin, our attention should hold fast to that ancient of adages “Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes” or “Beware of Greeks bearing gifts.”
I fear the Greeks, even when they don’t bear gifts.
Put another way: Do not trust the North Koreans, even when they bear gifts.
