Click here to read part I and part II.
7 p.m. ET Feb. 1, 2016 – Trump Tower, New York
Donald Trump sits in his office on the 26th floor of Trump Tower watching CNN, eating a custom taco bowl made for him by Trump Grill’s culinary staff. Clips of an interview Trump did earlier that day with Jake Tapper play. The chyron blares “TRUMP CONSIDERING INDEPENDENT PRES. RUN.”
“You promised to make an endorsement in this Republican primary and guaranteed your candidate would win,” Tapper says. “But the first votes are being cast tonight, and you haven’t endorsed yet.”
“Well I’m keeping my options open,” Trump says. “I’m thinking about three or four different Republican candidates because they’re promising to be very tough on Muslim refugees. I’m also thinking about Bernie Sanders because he knows what he’s talking about on trade. Companies are shipping jobs overseas because our deals are so terrible.”
“But no one gets everything right. So maybe I’ll just run myself. I don’t know.”
8 p.m. ET Feb. 1, 2016 – Iowa caucuses
There are four hours of hysterical punditry over the possibility of a Trump independent run before the Iowa caucuses begin and cool off the hot takes.
Caucus night begins with its usual quirkiness. A photo goes viral of a woman wearing a foam cornhusk hat, holding a homemade “Corny for Cruz” sign. Twitter snickers at a college student and his “Let’s get RANDy” shirt, including a photoshopped picture of a muscular Rand Paul. Someone outside a caucus site shouts “Clowns for Jeb!” while riding a unicycle and juggling flaming torches. Police send the man home before anyone can ask if his support is serious or parody.
As results roll in, it’s clear the Cruz campaign’s superior grassroots support and organization have paid off.
Boosted by having someone speak on his behalf at every precinct site, Cruz wins with 29 percent of the vote, followed by Paul and a surprising Marco Rubio joining the top tier. Bush falls to the middle tier with Ben Carson and Chris Christie.
Bob Dole is the only person, Democrat or Republican, to win two competitive Iowa caucuses. Unable to repeat his success, former caucus winners Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum drop out.
John Kasich is seen at a Pizza Ranch, eating his heart out while lamenting his disappointing performance.
Feb. 9, 2016 – New Hampshire primary
All eyes are on Rubio after his surprise surge into Iowa’s top tier. The media attention helps him erase Bush’s 10-point lead in New Hampshire.
In response, Bush’s super PAC floods the airwaves touting the endorsement of Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., and attacking Rubio’s lack of accomplishments in the U.S. Senate. At a Feb. 6 debate in Manchester, N.H., Rubio is caught repeating himself in four different instances. “Watch Robot Rubio short circuit on debate stage” headlines hit the Internet, though mostly on left-leaning websites like Huffington Post.
In the end, Bush ekes out a slim victory over Rubio. Kasich finishes in a virtual tie for third with Cruz, having spent months campaigning almost solely in New Hampshire but still lacking national attention.
Christie and Jim Gilmore end their campaigns, narrowing the field to six with South Carolina on its way.
Rubio, shocked by the close loss and still mad about his robotic debate performance, rips up his pre-written concession speech and goes off-the-cuff. He gives an impassioned, optimistic speech about the “coming of a new American century. We will create an America where everyone can succeed. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a man or a woman, whether you’re white, black, Asian or Latino, we will have a country where everyone succeeds together.” The speech gets rave reviews and sets the mainstream media focus for several days. “Could Rubio be the GOP candidate who finally wins the minority vote?” one headline prematurely asks.
Feb. 20, 2016 – South Carolina primary
After Rubio comes second in New Hampshire, his staff claim to have a “3-2-1” strategy: third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, first in South Carolina.
Coming off the success of his New Hampshire concession speech, Rubio gives more loose, off-the-cuff speeches. He starts to focus on how out-of-touch Hillary Clinton is on the important racial and criminal justice debates in the country. Not wanting to alienate the same minority voters who pushed President Obama to victory, he only attacks Obama on economic issues.
Contrasted with the repetitive monotony of most stump speeches, Rubio’s impassioned and off-the-cuff style leads many news outlets to carry large portions of his rallies live. When Gov. Nikki Haley, R-S.C., and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., endorse him, the entire rally is carried live in prime time on Fox News, CNN and MSNBC.
Bush’s campaign floods the airwaves again, but it’s too little, too late compared to Rubio’s free media coverage. Rubio wins South Carolina soundly but he’s unable to bounce any of his five rivals out of the race.
March 1, 2016 – Super Tuesday
As Super Tuesday results come in, a geographic divide emerges among Bush, Cruz and Rubio.
Bush wins states in the northeast, backed by moderate, establishment Republicans. Cruz takes the plains and western states, dominating in Texas and sweeping caucus states with grassroots support and organization built up over four years. After his South Carolina victory, Rubio starts to win in the South. Minority voters don’t flock to him, but he picks off enough to make the difference.
Fifteen states have cast their votes now. Cruz has won the biggest states, but Rubio has won the most contests. Bush is well behind in the delegate count, pinning his hopes on a come-from-behind win in Florida. A slew of second-place finishes leaves Paul down but not out.
With no polls showing any hope for improvement, Carson ends his campaign on March 4. Kasich has only a handful of delegates but vows to stay in and win Ohio.
Although five candidates are still alive, the race for the Republican presidential nomination is starting to look like a duel between Cruz and Rubio.
Look out for part IV on October 7. Can former Presidents Bush push Jeb to victory in Florida? Who will Trump endorse, if anybody? And what’s been going on in the Democratic race?
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
