My Eastern European comrades have always resisted misfortune with a healthy dose of dark humor and a generous bite of black bread — and the 2018 Russian presidential election is no exception. “There are two things in life that you cannot choose,” they say with a smirk. “The first is your place of birth, the second is the president of Russia.”
On Sunday, millions of Russians will reluctantly attend yet another award-winning performance of the Moscow political theater. Much like the threadbare Soviet films that are tirelessly replayed on Russian television, the 2018 presidential election will star familiar actors, follow a recognizable plot, and conclude with the same climax: an extravagant re-election of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
While many understand how this parody ends, few truly grasp the extent of its beginning. During every election cycle, rumors of widespread fraud are destined to make headlines on the front pages of the struggling opposition newspapers. Some pundits are even brave enough to accuse the Kremlin of illegitimate governance on public airwaves. Ironically, however, these grievances become just as familiar as the presidential elections that prefigure them, and only provide a momentary glimpse of the political machine that works behind the red curtain.
The brutal reality of Russian politics can be succinctly described in a single truism: Putin does not need to rig elections in order to to win the presidency. His popularity among Russians remains high, largely driven by aggressive geopolitical stratagems that distract the voters from the failing domestic economy. His carefully engineered, “independent” policy platform avoids ideological extremes, an effort designed to maximize appeal to both sides of the political spectrum. But most importantly, Putin has already framed Russia’s entire political arena to give voters no choice but to back the incumbent.
The loyal fans of the Russian president frequently deflect this scorching critique with a question that unintentionally reveals the heart of Putin’s dictatorial strategy: “If not Vladimir, then who?” Indeed, those who seek to effectively address this question in the upcoming election will not find their answer on the ballot.
The most surprising opponent to challenge Putin for the presidency is a Russian television personality Ksenia Sobchak. By Russian standards, Sobchak has a remarkably unusual political platform that embraces Western values of freedom and liberty. For that reason, she is frequently accused of being a Kremlin puppet, designed to play a role of a radical, pro-American opposition. Her curious campaign somewhat mirrors that of Mikhail Prokhorov, an entrepreneur who came 3rd in 2012’s contest and who was also labeled as a political tool of the Russian president.
Other candidates are equally as unappealing to average voters. Vladimir Zhirinovsky, a leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, is a veteran of Russian politics and is best known for peddling conspiracy theories and making absurd remarks. Perhaps not-so-coincidentally, Sobchak and Zhirinovsky got into a heated exchange during a presidential debate earlier this month that ultimately led to Sobchak dousing her opponent with water on live television. In response, Zhirinovsky — who is best described as the Alex Jones of Russia — went on a lengthy profanity-laced rant directed at his female adversary.
This bewildering exchange does not leave a rational voter with many other options. For those experiencing Soviet nostalgia, there is always Pavel Grudinin, a candidate from the Communist Party, and the Communists of Russia’s nominee, Maxim Suraykin. Those who prefer environmentalism are free to back Yabloko’s Grigory Yavlinsky. Likewise, nationalists may find refuge in the words of Sergey Baburin, a prominent member of Russian All-People’s Union. The only remaining candidate to challenge for the presidency is the Boris Titov, whose Party of Growth is barely represented in the Russian legislature.
While Putin’s opponents propose radical policies and splash one another with water, the Russian leader ignores presidential debates and makes an impressive presentation of Moscow’s new “invincible” nuclear arsenal. The Kremlin’s message is clear: Putin’s rivals are immature children playing in the sandbox while the president is the fearless defender of the motherland. Indeed, if not Vladimir, then who?
Having made it to the bottom of a meaningless list of names, disappointed Russian voters will then be left to ponder the extent of their “choice” in this election. As if watching a broken projector erratically shuffle through a forbidden slideshow, many will momentarily recall the fleeting faces of the real opposition leaders who have long been imprisoned or killed by their government.
Some will remember the blurry video of Boris Nemtsov’s fateful stroll in the heart of Russia’s capital. Others will wonder why the outspoken Putin critic, Alexei Navalny, has been barred from campaigning in 2018. And what of hundreds of other names, unknown to the public or the press, who have also been locked away for opposing Russia’s tyrant?
The only way for Putin to lose the upcoming election is by a miraculous liberation of Russia’s entire political process. And given the latest trend of tyrannical policies that continue to solidify the power of the Russian president, that miracle is destined to remain a mere fantasy.
Nikita Vladimirov (@nikvofficial) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is founder of Inside Geopolitics and also an investigative reporter for Campus Reform.
