As Hillary Clinton begins her presidential campaign, one fundamental question will determine the outcome of the 2016 presidential election: Is the coalition of voters that President Obama put together in his 2008 and 2012 victories indicative of a permanent change in the American electorate that favors any Democratic candidate? Or were the super-sized margins Obama enjoyed among groups such as minorities and young voters specific to the first African-American president?

If demographics are destiny, then Republicans will be in danger no matter how strong a campaign they mount against Clinton. If not — and if she can’t make up votes with other groups of voters — her candidacy will likely fail.