Our own Salena Zito wrote this week on the ascendancy of Wisconsin’s Republican Party. It’s a fascinating story, perhaps more than that of any other currently successful state party.
Her piece reminded me of all the contested statewide races there in recent years. There have been so many of them, and not just the officially partisan ones (and that gubernatorial recall election) but also the all-important and nominally non-partisan state Supreme Court races that were critical to Gov. Scott Walker’s political success. The fact that someone as conservative as Walker is even considering running for a third term, and could conceivably win one, is itself rather striking. Most politicians wear out their welcome after two terms in any state.
Beginning with the 2010 election, Democrats have cumulatively lost Wisconsin’s governor’s mansion, the state treasurer’s office, both houses of the state legislature (five Senate and 18 House seats in all), two U.S. House seats, one U.S. Senate seat, and one seat on the state Supreme Court (which now leans 5-2 conservative). They also lost control of the state’s ten electoral votes, which were cast on Monday for Donald Trump. (The attorney general has been Republican all along.)
This has all occurred within an extremely high-participation voting environment, with massive turnout in midterm years, presidential years, and even state by-elections, including the recall election staged against Gov. Walker.
After reading Zito’s piece, I decided to go back and look up all of the statewide races. Unless I’m missing anything (let me know on Twitter if you think I have), it appears that Republicans have won 13 of the last 18 statewide elections, including the Supreme Court races.
First, here’s a list of all the Republican victories in the age of Walker:
Nov. 2, 2010:
- Scott Walker elected governor.
- Ron Johnson upsets incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold to become the first Republican U.S. senator from Wisconsin since Feingold defated Robert Kasten in 1992.
- Republican Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen re-elected.
- Kurt Schuller elected state treasurer.
April 5, 2011
- David Prosser, a conservative justice, is very narrowly re-elected to the state Supreme Court over JoAnn Kloppenberg. The win preserves the court’s 4-3 conservative lean, guaranteeing that Walker’s union reform law will remain on the books.
June 5, 2012:
- Walker wins a recall election by 170,000 votes.
- Lieutenant Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch also wins in her own separate recall race by 146,000 votes.
Nov. 4, 2014:
- Walker wins re-election as governor, along with Kleefisch, his running mate.
- Brad Schmiel elected attorney general.
- Matt Adamczyk elected treasurer.
April 5, 2016:
- Justice Rebecca Bradley, a recent appointee of Walker, wins a full ten-year term on the Supreme Court by defeating JoAnne Kloppenberg. Bradley’s five-point win (about a 95,000 vote margin) comes amid record turnout for such a race, probably because it is held the same day as the state’s presidential primary, which is contested on both sides. The win cements a 5-2 conservative majority on the state Supreme Court.
Nov. 8, 2016:
- Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump wins Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes.
- Republican Sen. Ron Johnson wins re-election, a result nearly as surprising.
So again, those are the statewide victories since 2010 — 13 in all. Now here are the races Republicans have lost since Walker’s first election — a much shorter list.
Nov. 2, 2010:
- Doug LaFollette re-elected to his ninth term as Secretary of State.
Nov. 6, 2012:
- Barack Obama easily wins Wisconsin’s electoral votes.
- Rep. Tammy Baldwin wins the Senate seat opened up by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl, defeating former Gov. Tommy Thompson.
Nov. 4, 2014
- Doug LaFollette re-elected to his tenth term as Secretary of State.
April 7, 2015:
- Liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley convincingly wins re-election in a low-turnout race for another 10-year term on the state Supreme Court.
And … that’s it, just five Democratic statewide wins.
Basically, the state GOP has had one bad year in recent times, and has otherwise been gaining the upper hand. Wisconsin remains very competitive, but Democrats really have their work cut out for them if they hope to regain control.
