On Tuesday, President Trump inadvertently explained why his North Korea strategy is struggling:
The story in the New York Times concerning North Korea developing missile bases is inaccurate. We fully know about the sites being discussed, nothing new – and nothing happening out of the normal. Just more Fake News. I will be the first to let you know if things go bad!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 13, 2018
The problem here is simple: As I noted on my own Twitter page, Trump’s tweet sends the message to Kim Jong Un and his inner circle that Trump only expects them to say nice things about him and avoid firing off new ballistic missile tests. And that’s a big problem because the abundant evidence shows that North Korea continues to develop its ballistic missile-plus-nuclear-warhead capabilities. These efforts go beyond what the New York Times reported in the article that attracted Trump’s ire. Put specifically, North Korea continues to refine its nuclear warhead vehicles to better survive re-entry and countermeasure targeting, it continues to improve it missile and warhead targeting systems, and it continues to train and deploy ballistic missile specialists around North Korea. Much of this activity does not require Kim to do that which Trump has apparently identified as his red line: testing new missiles. It can simply be done in factories on the ground.
Yet, the real issue here is how Trump’s laissez faire attitude will be perceived in Pyongyang. Because it will empower the hardliners around Kim who are persuading the North Korean leader to play the U.S. for a fool. And that’s a deep tragedy. I am strongly led to believe that Kim is actively considering Trump’s offer of nuclear disarmament — at least in some form — in return for an economic, diplomatic, and security restoration of ties. Kim, in short, might be a real Gorbachev in waiting. But if Kim can get the best of both worlds — restored ties alongside his nuclear strike capability — he will do so. It is in that sense that Trump’s tweet is so problematic: Kim will translate it as “please play me.”
Trump’s tweet will also encourage China and Russia to continue their circumvention of sanctions targeting North Korea. If those nations believe Trump isn’t terribly concerned about North Korea’s current track, then they will have far less hesitation in enabling that track! This undercuts good work that U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley has been doing.
Trump’s message is also problematic regarding South Korea. After all, South Korean president Moon Jae-in is already pursuing overt appeasement towards Kim. The only tempering influence against this appeasement has been the U.S. If, however, the Trump administration is seen by Seoul to have abandoned its “maximum pressure” strategy, South Korea will simply give Pyongyang all the economic and diplomatic aid that it desires without requesting anything in return.
Ultimately, Trump must reset his course here. If he can achieve a North Korean settlement which removes that nation’s nuclear threat against America, Trump will rightfully earn a place in the history books. But Trump’s tweet on Tuesday only hurt that objective.
