Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s party lost Istanbul’s mayoralty on Sunday for the second time this year. The first time, Erdoğan demanded a recount, lost it, then refused to accept the result, and had a kangaroo court throw it out.

Now Erdoğan has lost again. Think of this as his Titanic moment: His political hull is breached, his ship is taking on water, and there’s an increasingly strong likelihood that he won’t survive another election.