President Trump still could win reelection, but pollster Frank Luntz was right last week to say that the Trump campaign’s message selection and discipline have been “political malpractice” that is the “worst” since at least 1980.
Campaign aficionados have been waiting in vain all year to see what Trump’s preeminent, galvanizing issue would be. In lieu of that, surely, at least his “closing pitch” would be well focused on the issues or feelings that would move voters in identifiable ways — right?
Wrong. The attempt to put forth an attractive message has resembled a Jackson Pollock “paint splash” canvas, but less intentional. One struggles to find any discernible strategy. Even if the campaign wanted a broad canvas with more than the usual number of disparate elements, voters still want and usually need a “connect the dots” approach that helps them figure how to make contextual sense of it all. The Trump campaign hasn’t even tried to connect the dots.
During recent months (and with a change in metaphors), the campaign’s emphasis has careened from protecting against street violence to the supposedly great pre-pandemic economy to Joe Biden’s alleged physical and mental infirmities to Biden’s proposed tax hikes to the scandals implied in the purported laptop of Hunter Biden. This might make sense if these themes were organized as a list of reasons voters should choose Trump, building a deliberate case. But this hasn’t been organized. It has been haphazard.
Take Hunter Biden’s purported laptop, for example. The Trump campaign has pushed this story as a late-campaign game changer. However, the campaign has not explained why voters should care. It hasn’t connected the dots to explain, first, why the story implicates candidate Joe Biden in addition to son Hunter, second, why this could make a real difference for American foreign policy, and third, how these foreign policy implications might affect voters’ lives.
It would be simple for Trump to say on the stump, and for campaign commercials to insist, that, “This is about China. China is our greatest adversary. The Chinese are stealing our jobs, giving us a pandemic, and threatening the high seas in ways that could hurt our economy. When Joe helps his son earn gazillions from China’s communist government, how can he stand up for our interests, American interests, if he is president?”
Four years ago, the story was quite different. While Trump himself almost always rambles a bit at the podium, the campaign’s central message, whether accurate or not, was quite clear: Immigration and bad trade deals are hurting our economy, and the system’s insiders are robbing us blind. No such focus is evident this year. Indeed, on what once seemed to be Trump’s top issue, namely “law and order,” the campaign sends mixed messages. It blasts Joe Biden for being weak on crime at the same time it blames him for the 1994 crime bill that got tough on crime.
It’s confusing to say cities shouldn’t defund police while criticizing a law whose primary effect was to finance more local police.
None of this is to say Trump can’t win. This is a volatile year, and Republicans have done great jobs with voter registration, direct voter contacts, and ginning up observable enthusiasm within its base of voters.
Still, message matters, especially when Trump’s personality itself is so polarizing. Millions of voters dislike Trump’s personality but doubt Joe Biden’s policies, age, and ability to stand up to radical Democrats. They need a clear message as to why they should override their personal antipathy against the president.
It’s a message they aren’t receiving.
