As American officials worry about Russian interference in the midterm elections, it is worth remembering that Russia is an aggressor on the ground as well. If the U.S. fails to take Russian interference in America seriously, it sends a message to Moscow that Vladimir Putin can do what he likes on the ground, thus emboldening his aggression towards Russia’s neighbors.
For example, in the Caucasus, the border with Russia is slowly encroaching on Georgia’s territory as Moscow-backed troops move barbed wire fences and menacing signs further west. Already, the movement of the dividing line between the two countries has meant that entire communities find themselves on Russian land or farmers discover that portions of their fields now lay on the other side of a barbed wire fence.
The conflicted border is the result of a nearly ten-year-old conflict between Russia and Georgia that resulted in Russia claiming control over two Georgian territories, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Although both of these areas are internationally recognized as disputed territories that are part of Georgia, Russia claims that they are independent.
Essentially the “independent” states are occupied by the Russian military backed by Moscow and continue to pose a threat to Georgia. As a Heritage Foundation report details “since the 2008 invasion, South Ossetia and Abkhazia essentially have become large Russian military bases.”
The goal of the Russian strategy of “borderization” is to divide communities and further claim Georgian territory as Russian. Since 2011, the Heritage Foundation has found 56 incidents at 48 different locations.
According to the European Union Monitoring Mission, which conducts independent monitoring in the area, the threat of the creeping border is ongoing despite the cease fire deal that stipulated that Russian troops would be withdrawn from the region.
The border in Georgia, of course, is just one of many examples of the Russian aggression on the ground including the annexation of Crimea and destabilization in other parts of Ukraine.
Although these simmering conflicts seem far away, it is clear that the intentions and capabilities of Moscow extend beyond spreading disinformation on social media. As Vice President Mike Pence said during a 2017 visit: “No threat looms larger in the Baltic states that the specter of aggression from your unpredictable neighbor to the east.” He added, “At this very moment, Russia continues to seek to redraw international borders by force, undermine the democracies of sovereign states, and divide the free nations of Europe against one another.”
This resonates today as on Monday, the Russian prime minister warned that allowing Georgia to join NATO, and thus be part of the Article 5 defense agreement, would provoke a “terrible conflict.”
As evidenced by ongoing aggression and the clear opposition to Georgia joining NATO, it is U.S. and allied support for these countries that deters Russia’s actions. If the U.S., including President Trump, fail to concretely address the threats posed by Russia within the United States, that will embolden Russia’s aggressive actions such seizing land from Georgia.
The danger of not taking the Russian threat seriously impacts far more than U.S. elections and has consequences for the sovereignty and security of Russia’s neighbors.
