Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz says that Israel is working with the United States to develop a “Plan B” in the event that negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program fail. The question is, what does this signify about Israel’s assessment of the status quo?
Speaking to reporters, Gantz observed that intelligence “cooperation with the United States in this field is only getting stronger. We are working with them in order to establish a Plan B and to demonstrate that if there is no deal, other activities will begin as President Biden said.”
Gantz’s comments follow a meeting in Washington last week between Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
While the Israeli government disagrees with Biden’s efforts to reconstruct the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Bennett is lobbying Biden behind closed doors. This represents a striking strategic contrast with his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, who sought to pressure Biden via Congress and bold public statements.
Still, Israel’s enduring concern over Iran’s nuclear program should not be underestimated. Israel regards the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, even one possessing a low number of warheads, as the precursor to a second Holocaust. It will thus do just about anything to prevent that outcome.
Time is not on Israel’s side.
A hard-liner cabal, now led by President Ebrahim Raisi and very close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has taken power in Tehran. This regime is escalating its aggression against U.S. interests, refusing to make serious concessions toward a restored nuclear deal. But as Gantz noted last week, “Iran is only two months away from acquiring the materials necessary for a nuclear weapon. We do not know if the Iranian regime will be willing to sign an agreement and come back to the negotiation table, and the international community must build a viable ‘Plan B’ in order to stop Iran in its tracks towards a nuclear weapon.”
Note the recurring “Plan B” narrative. Although cautious coalition partners, Bennett, Gantz, and their primary third-party colleague, Yair Lapid, appear to have agreed on a two-stage strategy. Their present objective is to pressure the Biden administration into rebuilding a durable and intrusive Iran inspections protocol. At the same time, Israel continues its own covert action against Iran. Led by various Israeli intelligence and special forces units, this effort focuses on assassination, intimidation, and sabotage.
But if that fails, Israel will push hard for the Biden administration to reengage in a joint covert action campaign against Iran. These covert action efforts began under the Obama administration and grew dramatically in diversity, scale, and intensity under the Trump administration. However, many of these programs have been suspended or restricted by the Biden administration. Israel wants a restart, especially with regard to actions that can help degrade Iran’s nuclear production and satellite (a cover for ballistic missile research) and warhead development efforts.
Where does this leave us?
Well, Israel recognizes that conventional military strikes would likely fail to destroy Iran’s nuclear program — unless, that is, the U.S. military conducted such an operation. Even then, success would be far from assured. But if Israel senses that the choice is between a nuclear Iran and military strikes, it will choose the latter.
