When it comes to North Korea’s amenability to a durable agreement with the United States, Chinese influence on Pyongyang is crucial. But while Chinese President Xi Jinping thinks that this influence gives him leverage over the U.S., the opposite is actually true. China now needs the U.S. more than the U.S. needs China. And if China fails to deliver on North Korea, the U.S. can greatly damage Chinese interests.

All of this bears note, considering North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s meetings with Xi in Beijing this week. Hoping to exchange viewpoints beyond U.S. intelligence detection, the Xi-Kim meetings precede a second summit between President Trump and Kim. That summit will likely occur by the end of March and is of instrumental importance. After all, Kim’s recent behavior indicates an intent to resume missile tests if a new summit does not lead to near-term international sanctions relief. The Trump administration is also growing impatient with Kim’s unwillingness to allow inspector access to his nuclear and ballistic missile facilities. The simple point here is that one side will have to move the diplomatic needle constructively, but neither side seems interested in doing so. The ingredients for a renewed crisis are coming together.