Jeb Bush is drawing headlines today for addressing one of the biggest vulnerabilities of his candidacy — his last name.
“I also have been lucky to have a father and a brother who both have shaped America’s foreign policy from the Oval Office,” according to prepared remarks of a Wednesday foreign policy speech. “I recognize that as a result, my views will often be held up in comparison to theirs’ — sometimes in contrast to theirs’. I love my father and my brother. I admire their service to the nation and the difficult decisions they had to make. But I am my own man — and my views are shaped by my own thinking and own experiences.”
This has been publicized as a way for Jeb to honor his father and brother while distancing himself early. The problem is, as I’ve noted before, that as Jeb builds his campaign it’s inevitable that he’ll draw on staff, advisers, and donors from the two George Bushes — who led the two most recent Republican administrations.
Sure enough, Steve Holland of Reuters reports that among the advisers Bush will be consulting are:
— James Baker: Secretary of state for Jeb’s dad, George H.W. Bush, who oversaw the Florida recount for his brother’s 2000 presidential campaign and later served as a special Iraq envoy;
— Paul Wolfowitz: Served as an undersecretary of defense in the first Bush administration under then-Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, then as deputy secretary of defense and World Bank president in the second Bush administration;
— Tom Ridge and Michael Chertoff: Bush II’s secretaries of Homeland Security;
— Stephen Hadley: An aide to Wolfowitz in the Defense Department during the first Bush administration and a campaign adviser to George W. Bush who went on to rise to national security adviser;
— Meghan O’ Sullivan: She helped oversee the occupation of Iraq during the George W. Bush administration, became his deputy national security adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan and now serves on the advisory council for the women’s initiative at the George W. Bush Institute;
— Porter Goss and Michael Hayden: They served as CIA directors under Jeb’s brother.
One speech isn’t going to help Jeb overcome the basic problem of trying to exploit all of the advantages of being part of a political dynasty while simultaneously attempting to convince people that he’d be different. If 2016 turns out to be a “change” election year, then the Bush family history will be a liability both in the primaries and general election.
In the primaries, a new crop of Republican politicians can run change-themed campaigns. In a general election, nominating Bush would neutralize one of Hillary Clinton’s biggest liabilities (the idea that she, too, is a figure from the past trying to ride her last name to power). Instead of having the clear contrast that would be possible if Republicans were to name a fresh candidate, the 2016 election would devolve into a proxy battle over whether Americans want to restore the Bush or Clinton presidencies. Whether the GOP likes it or not, that isn’t a matchup that favors Republicans.
