Creating space and inducement toward weaponized sectarianism, President Trump’s withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria offers the Islamic State its renewal. But while most ISIS fighters have now gone covert, hiding back home or in Syrian and Iraqi settlements, some overt ISIS operations continue.
Enter this video on Twitter via Syrian conflict observer @RisboLensky. Taken from an ISIS propaganda newscast, the video shows an ISIS skirmishing attack on the U.S.-supported Syrian Democratic Forces. It apparently occurred just north of the Euphrates river on the Syrian side of the Iraq-Syria border.
#IS raid NE of Shafah which was conducted yesterday SE #DeirEzzor pic.twitter.com/vZUuoW0ZlG
— Drexl Spivey (@RisboLensky) December 28, 2018
On paper, this attack makes very little sense for ISIS. After all, its commanders know that attacks such as that above are exceptionally risky and extremely limited in military value. As soon as ISIS fighting groups leave their cover and enter the fight, they are vulnerable to identification by allied ground forces or aerial intelligence assets such as drones. And then, they are obliterated by JDAM bombs. Having lost most of its territory in Syria and Iraq, and with most of its fighters in hiding, the group cannot use attacks such as this one to hold territory for any significant period.
That raises the question: Why is ISIS willing to sacrifice its fighters for a video? Simple: Priceless propaganda.
We must remember that ISIS’ popularity among Salafi-Jihadists remains consolidated by its vast gains in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and elsewhere during the 2013-2015 period. The underlying theological-political currents that drive Salafi-Jihadism mean that its supporters are patient, determined, and confident that God will eventually guide them to victory. ISIS territorial losses, then, are a painful reality, but not a defining one. Its fighters believe the tide will eventually turn back in their favor.
But that belief requires consolidation, and that takes us back to the video. Seeing brave fighters (many are likely psychopathic) charging enemies in “Mad Max”-style attacks, actual or prospective ISIS supporters find a renewal of that which they most love about ISIS — namely, its fanatical aggression in its perceived ordained purpose.
This video is thus a clear window into ISIS’ current thinking. ISIS is no longer focused on the holding of territory but on the expanded holding of minds. With time, ISIS believes its physical caliphate will rise again. But it also knows that such an outcome requires human servants. Hence, the priority of propaganda.
Expect more videos such as this one, and others, in the vein of the 2014-2015 video executions.
