President Trump, dancing to Kim Jong Un’s fiddle, agreed to another summit with the North Korean dictator at the end of February. Although there is likely to be plenty of pomp surrounding the follow-up to the first summit meeting in Singapore last summer, there is little reason to expect a breakthrough from a new sit-down meeting between the two leaders.
Throughout North Korea’s history of negotiating with U.S. presidents over its nuclear program, the reclusive rogue state has repeatedly played up the possibility of dropping its weapons programs in exchange for sanctions relief, only to go back to business as usual. Current negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea have continued in the same fashion.
North Korea has seemingly talked the talk of denuclearization, even signing a vague agreement in Singapore with Trump. It has subsequently pushed back on any real progress on dismantling its facilities or becoming transparent about its nuclear activity. As evidenced by satellite images, North Korea has instead taken steps to conceal its operations and weapons.
When it comes to the diplomatic process of negotiations, Kim’s words similarly have little to show. Pyongyang has canceled meetings, refused to talk to Washington’s appointed special representative, and failed to engage with the U.S. in good faith, leaving negotiations at an impasse.
More worryingly, North Korea also seemed to walk back from even the idea of complete denuclearization, Trump’s stated goal, in a December press release. The state news agency argued that unless the U.S. removed what Pyongyang deems a “nuclear threat” — meaning troops stationed in South Korea as well as a nuclear shield that protects South Korea and Japan from an attack — it would not give up its weapons. Since that would leave key U.S. allies vulnerable, that’s an impossible demand.
That is to say, as Vice President Mike Pence put it earlier this week, “While the president has started a promising dialogue with Chairman Kim, we still await concrete steps by North Korea to dismantle the nuclear weapons that threaten our people and our allies in the region.”
For Trump, that means a new meeting with Kim isn’t likely to give him the victory on denuclearization that he wants. It also means it is imperative that he enter that meeting with his eyes open, aware of the country’s negotiating history and the current state of talks — and thus realistic expectations.
That doesn’t mean that there isn’t the potential for progress: After all, there’s plenty of work to do on mitigating threats posed by North Korea, including chemical weapons and cyberattacks in addition to nuclear arms. To make meaningful progress, however, Trump must be wary of just what North Korea is asking for, as well as the framework of inspections, verification, dispute resolution, and other components necessary for a real and enforceable agreement.
Unfortunately, by agreeing to another meeting without first gaining real concessions from Kim or even having negotiators agree to a basic road map for talks, Trump is unlikely to walk away with even the slimmest measures of progress. Instead, he is simply handing Kim exactly what he wants: more political credibility, an undeserved reward.
