Moscow’s election interference is not simply an attack on democracy, but it’s a means to weaken the United States’s global role. Russian intelligence agencies are engaged in disinformation offensives crafted to exploit rifts in American society and depict the U.S. as an ailing power.
The Kremlin favors the reelection of President Trump because he is seen as a disruptive force and a potentially valuable partner. But even if Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden wins the presidency, Moscow will promote domestic conflicts to challenge the legitimacy of the election.
Polarization between Republicans and Democrats is so pronounced that foreign actors have space to disseminate disinformation to help or damage either presidential candidate. Partisanship is reflected in a deeply divided electorate, which is susceptible to a range of conspiracy theories. This has become most glaring in the popularity of the QAnon movement, reminiscent of medieval witchcraft accusations.
Disinformation is not an end in itself. It serves at least three strategic goals for the Kremlin. First, Moscow seeks to discredit democracy as a failing and fraudulent system. It highlights real or alleged election rigging, voter suppression, media bias, and whatever other exploitable controversies are available.
It can also include more active measures by hacking or fabricating emails or other messages at opportune moments, as witnessed during the 2016 election campaign. For several months, Russian intelligence appears to have been supplying Trump’s advisers and allies with disinformation to defame Biden and his family.
Unlike in the communist era, Moscow no longer trumpets its own system as idyllic but seeks to widen fissures in Western democracies so they are not viewed as global models. Democratic systems can be denigrated as facades for racism, xenophobia, and class division. The U.S. is portrayed as having irreconcilable social fractures, whether based on class, wealth, ethnicity, color, religion, region, or sexual identity, and with deepening rifts between “red” and “blue” states that no administration will be able to bridge.
A second Kremlin goal is to discredit U.S. officials as hypocrites for criticizing crackdowns on dissent and other civil rights abuses in authoritarian countries. Russia’s government revels in the portrayal of America as a country on the brink of civil war and impending collapse, thereby justifying its own allegedly successful handling of domestic opposition that ensures stability.
Third, and most critically, Moscow seeks to diminish America’s global role not only as the beacon of freedom but also as a trusted ally. Domestic unrest and mishandling of the pandemic supposedly underscores that Washington is a fading power and will be too preoccupied with internal problems to assist any of its allies in a time of crisis. Such portrayals also tap into growing sentiments among the public that Washington must scale back its global involvement to rebuild the U.S. economy.
Moscow’s goal is to restrict the U.S. to its own hemisphere, diminish its international alliances, and enable authoritarian states to carve up the rest of the world into spheres of influence. Russian President Vladimir Putin calculates that if Trump is reelected, he would feel more unrestrained in applying his version of “America first.” No longer dependent on Congress for his political survival, Trump would have a freer hand to disregard Republicans and his national security team, which has maintained a pro-NATO orientation.
Ideally for Moscow, such a scenario could result in reducing America’s role in Western institutions, removing all U.S. troops from Europe, lifting economic sanctions for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, forging a strategic partnership with Putin, and even sacrificing much of Europe’s east to Moscow in a new Yalta-like grand bargain.
A Biden victory is less welcome in Moscow because it would refocus Washington on intensifying transatlantic cooperation and could presage a tougher policy toward Russia, including more intensive strategic pushback for its ongoing attacks on neighboring states.
Biden could also capitalize on pledges to reform America’s law enforcement institutions by pursuing a wider campaign in support of liberty and ethnic equality. This would mean greater attention to Moscow’s subjugation of political opponents and the numerous nations that are politically imprisoned in the Russian Federation.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, D.C. His recent book, co-authored with Margarita Assenova, is titled Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks.
