Democratic leaders who had hoped to wake up Wednesday morning to news of a political earthquake in California had to be disappointed that their bid for an upset in the special congressional election in San Diego had fallen short.
Under ordinary circumstances, the fact that their candidate, Francine Busby, came within four percentage points of beating Republican Brian Bibray would have caused Democratic rejoicing in the rock-ribbed GOP 50th congressional district, a bastion of conservativism in the state.
But because the Democrats had looked to the election to fire up their campaign for control of Congress in November, they have to settle now for lesser signals that their dream of ending the 12-year GOP majority in the House is alive.
For one thing, the result failed to confirm that “a culture of corruption” in the Republican Party, built in part on the conviction for bribery of the now-jailed Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham of the 50th district, would drive their bid for the takeover.
Instead, a huge influx of Republican manpower and $5 million from the national Republican Party enabled Bilbray to eke out a 49-45 percent victory, with a big boost from anti-immigrant sentiment in a district bordering Mexico.
Busby?s vote was 9 percent higher than she had managed two years ago in losing to Cunningham. But it wasn?t enough to counter Bilbray?s support for punitive measures against illegal aliens, in which he conspicuously broke with President Bush, who favors providing a path to citizenship for them.
At the same time, the closeness of the election served notice on the Republicans that the outpouring of resources it took to save the longtime GOP district will have to be replicated in other threatened congressional districts to turn back the Democrats? charge. They need to pick up 15 seats in the House for control.
For once, in anticipation of the opportunity presented by the failing fortunes and popularity of President Bush, the Democrats will be going into this fall?s congressional elections financially competitive with the Republicans. Latest accounts give the Democrats $22.8 million cash on hand, the Republicans $19.6 million.
But the power of incumbency in the House remains on the Republican side. Though polls show most respondents prefer the Democrats on the leading issues and want them in control, they also continue to support their individual members of Congress, with a rate of incumbent return of 99 percent.
Special elections like the one caused by Cunningham?s conviction and vacated House seat tend to draw heavy out-of-state resources in both parties, and greater media attention than usual. This one particularly became a magnet for both because the Democrats spotlighted it as a prelude to their widely anticipated bid to regain House control in November.
Bilbray?s strategy of bucking the president?s more middle-road position on immigration reform appeared to be decisive for him in this conservative district bordering on Mexico. But elsewhere in the southwest and other pockets of mushrooming Hispanic population, the Democrats hope the more liberal, welcoming approach will swell their majority vote in those areas in the fall.
In all this, the waning support nationally for President Bush on other issues, especially the war in Iraq, gives the Democrats particular reason for wanting to “nationalize” the congressional elections, usually swayed by local issues and candidate preferences in individual House races.
That strategy worked spectacularly for the Republicans in 1994, when they succeeded in making the then-slumping President Bill Clinton the issue and capturing the House with their Contract With America.
The Democratic leadership on Capitol Hill has promised to release its own blueprint for a Democratic-controlled Congress later in the summer, which doubtless will be highlighted by promises for investigations into Republican corruption and conduct of the Iraq war.
But no clear consensus on the latter issue has yet emerged in the Democratic councils, and there is no figure of national prominence to articulate it. Certainly the war did not emerge as a critical factor in the San Diego election as it is expected to be in November, and should be.
Jules Witcover, a Baltimore Examiner columnist, is syndicated by Tribune Media Services. He has covered national affairs from Washington for more than 50 years and is the author of 11 books, and co-author of five others, on American politics and history.
