President Trump’s agreement Tuesday with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un had better not mark the end of negotiations, because if it does, our dealmaking chief executive got much the worse of the encounter than his counterpart. It wasn’t even close.
By meeting with Kim, Trump legitimized him. That was worth doing if it leads to the end of North Korea’s nuclear threat. Were Kim to give up his nuclear weapons, or even just his missile program, tensions in the region would become far more manageable.
Unfortunately, none of this happened.
North Korea exacted a key concession from Trump without agreeing to anything concrete or verifiable. The joint statement by Kim and Trump makes only the vaguest commitment to denuclearization — “the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” The precise meaning of this is anyone’s guess, and our guess is it means something very different to Kim than to Trump. Many if not most things being “worked toward” today will not come about in a mere lifetime.
Even worse, Trump gave up a valuable bargaining chip, perhaps without intending to do so in advance, or without informing South Korean officials or his own military brass.
He agreed to cease U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises that the two allies have been conducting for decades. These are useful not only in promoting military readiness but also in placing Kim and his Chinese allies on notice that another invasion of South Korea, like the one his grandfather Kim Il Sung launched in 1950, would meet ferocious resistance, and would probably result in the end of his regime.
The joint military exercises have been a constant source of aggravation for Kim, as they were for his father and his grandfather, the founder of North Korea. It was thus expected that Trump would agree to stop them only in exchange for something more substantial than he has so far secured. China, with its strategic goal of dominance in the western Pacific, must be delighted at how cheaply its ally from Pyongyang moved toward a less potent presence in the region.
President Trump seems to be betting on Kim’s nonexistent good nature, and hoping against all prior evidence that his sudden benevolence is genuine and concessions will be forthcoming. It might happen, but the past is often a good guide to the future.
Oddly, Trump tried to persuade Kim with a slick marketing video. The four-minute clip, styled like a movie trailer, played perhaps wisely to Kim’s vanity, but it also hinted at his desperation and lightly touched on the possibility of a military conflict that the North Korean regime could not survive. Kim knows well, however, that if his regime is brought to an end, he will not retire a hero, as the movie trailer implies. More likely, he would die in a ditch. If he is lucky, he’d get a fair trial for crimes against humanity. If he is less fortunate, his fate would be that of Benito Mussolini or Nicolae Ceausescu, lynched by an outraged and oppressed people finally free to act on their impulses.
To be sure, the superficiality of the summit does not yet mean all is lost. Military exercises can be restarted. But it would be nice to see more reassuring signs that that is part of the Trump administration’s planning.
Foreign policy is executed on many levels, several of them concealed from public scrutiny. So we are left to hope and pray that behind-the-scenes action include more substantive steps towards stripping Kim of his ability to launch nuclear missiles.
Trump’s performance in Singapore had the unreal air of a reality show, Fortunately, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton are serious minded statesmen where their boss is a showman. We hope they are building a more substantial edifice around Trump’s quick agreement.
[Related: Schumer hopes Trump, Kim meeting wasn’t a ‘reality show summit’]
If so, Trump’s summit may yet be the foundation for a real and laudable diplomatic achievement. Americans and the people of East Asia must hope, as we do, that he succeeds in this, perhaps the most critical challenge of his presidency.
