In March, an unnerving statistic began appearing in the headlines of mainstream news reporting: Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign rallies had produced a staggering 226% increase in hate crimes.

For many liberals, a surge in hate-fueled violence probably seems self-evidently connected to Trump’s cruel remarks about specific minority groups, Mexicans, Muslims, etc. When the FBI reported late last year that hate crimes had increased 17% from 2016 to 2017, it seemed to confirm a certain narrative: Look around, and you will see that America has become a more spiteful place.