Amazon drones deliver packages, self-driving Ubers taxi riders, and artificial intelligence even files AP reports. As automation increases, many have wondered if a robot will make their job obsolete. Luckily, the very-human White House Council of Economic Advisors has the answer.
The binary for replacement falls along the lines of ability and pay grade. More specialized workers aren’t as likely to be replaced as their less skilled coworkers. And that could complicate Trump’s plan to make American manufacturing great again.
Workers making less than $20 an hour were more than twice as likely to lose their job to a robot as those making between $20 and $40 an hour. For employees bringing in more than that, chances of automation attrition are negligible. And unsurprisingly, employees with higher levels of education face less of a threat from robots in their field. But almost half of the jobs occupied by those with less than a high school education could be on the chopping block.
The Carrier deal in Indiana provides a ready case study of the clash between robotics and protectionist politics. Shortly after the president-elect helped negotiate $7 million in tax cuts, the HVAC company announced that, in order to save cost, it planned to automate much of the plant instead of moving to Mexico. It’s part of the latest trend occurring across the country.
A renaissance of automated manufacturing has boosted productivity and subsequently reduced the workforce. Though output has reached near prerecession levels, according to The Wall Street Journal, industrial hiring has stagnated. “About 1.5 million factory jobs,” the paper reports, “haven’t returned.” Today, 12.3 million people clock in and out of manufacturing facilities, down from 13.7 million in December.
That economic environment will keep the next administration busy. Trump might be willing to place tariffs on outsourcing companies, but it’s much more difficult to keep stateside industries from outsourcing to save money. Perhaps Skynet is more of a threat than China after all.
Philip Wegmann is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
