Playoffs? Playoffs! You know you need an escape this weekend, and the NFL is happy to oblige with, for the first time, six playoff games in the same weekend. Here are two keys for each of the 12 teams in action, plus my picks to win. In the regular season, my picks were 32-19 straight-up and 26-23 against the spread (with two annoying pushes).
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Buffalo Bills (13-3), Saturday at 1:05 p.m. EST on CBS
Key No. 1 for Indianapolis: Pass defense
ESPN’s Mike Wells noted that the Colts, who for much of the season had one of the best defenses in the NFL, have really struggled on the defensive side of the ball in their last seven games.
“They’ve allowed 296.9 passing yards a game since Week 11, which ranks 31st in the NFL. The 385.7 total yards allowed a game is 24th in the league in that same time span,” Wells said.
Overall, the Colts are second in the NFL in run defense but 20th when it comes to defending the pass. That could be a serious issue since the Bills have the league’s third-best passing attack. The Colts need to stay sound defensively and not give up big gains through the air. They’ll need to make the Bills work for everything they get.
Key No. 2 for Indianapolis: Turnover battle
The turnover battle is always critical, but it is especially important when you’re playing the NFL’s second-best scoring offense. The Bills and Colts are two of the best teams in the NFL at forcing turnovers. The Bills force a turnover on 15.3% of opponent’s drives, while the Colts are at 14.3%. The Colts will need to take care of the ball on Saturday because they can ill-afford to give the Bills short fields and extra possessions. When they’re on defense, the Colts could really use a turnover or two to aid their cause.
Key No. 1 for Buffalo: Josh Allen
Quarterback Josh Allen had an MVP-caliber season after taking a massive leap in his development from year two to year three. He went from 10 passing touchdowns his rookie year to 20 last season to 37 this year. He’s throwing for over 311 yards per game at a 69.2% clip.
Look for him to connect early and often with Stefon Diggs. Diggs, who emerged as one of the NFL’s best receivers in his first season with Buffalo, led the NFL in targets, catches, and receiving yards in the regular season. He also happens to have a legendary playoff resume already.
Allen is third on the team in rushing yards and leads the squad in rushing touchdowns, with eight, so he can hurt you in a number of ways. In order for the Bills to win, he’ll need to continue to play as he has for much of the season, but he might also need to be ready and step up in a clutch situation to ice or win the game.
Key No. 2 for Buffalo: Keep scoring
This may seem very obvious, but the Bills will have a better chance to win if they score consistently. Only one team scores more often than Buffalo does. The offense is scoring on 49.4% of its drives this season. That’s an outstanding number. While the Bills, who have scored 48, 38, and 56 points in their last three games, would love to put up touchdowns instead of field goals, continuing to score puts more and more pressure on the Colts to keep pace.
The line: Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
The pick: The Bills are simply on fire right now, having won six in a row and nine of their last 10. Barring a monster performance from Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, I don’t think the Colts are equipped to cool them off. I’m taking the Bills to win and cover.
Los Angeles Rams (10-6) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4), Saturday at 4:40 p.m. EST on FOX
Key No. 1 for Los Angeles: Jared Goff’s health
Jared Goff had surgery on his thumb toward the end of the regular season after he suffered an injury to his throwing hand. Will he be able to play and potentially play through the pain? If not, John Wolford, who made his first career start in the regular-season finale, will be under center in his first-ever playoff appearance. The drop-off in terms of confidence and ability will be significant. Even if Goff plays, can he stay effective and stay healthy?
Key No. 2 for Los Angeles: Third-down defense
The Rams have the NFL’s best defense. They’re first in scoring defense, first in yards allowed, first against the pass, third against the run, and second in sacks. They’re also third in third-down defense and are only allowing opposing teams to convert 35.4% of the time.
The Rams score on just 34.2% of their possessions. That’s 25th in the league. I expect that number to be even lower on Saturday if Wolford is the one calling plays in the huddle.
Key No. 1 for Seattle: Be aggressive early on offense and defense
We’ve all seen Russell Wilson make the unbelievable play and the unbelievable comeback. What the Seahawks really need is for Wilson to set the tone and dominate early. These two teams split their regular-season series and play twice a year, so they know each other extremely well. Putting LA in a hole early on in the game if Wolford is under center would put incredible pressure on both the Rams offense and defense. The defense can ill-afford to give up many points when Goff isn’t running the show.
Regardless of who is starting at quarterback for LA, the Seahawks defense should want to blitz and apply pressure and hit them early and often. Getting the Rams offense off the field means that the Seahawks offense will have more opportunities to try to wear down and score on the phenomenal Rams defense.
Key No. 2 for Seattle: Pass defense
ESPN’s Brady Henderson reported that All-Pro safety Jamal Adams will play Saturday despite suffering a new left shoulder injury and the fact that he already has a right shoulder injury and two broken fingers on his left hand. Adams, who has never been to the playoffs before, also leads the team in sacks.
The Seahawks have the second-worst passing defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game through the air but have given up just 23 passing touchdowns. For context, that’s ninth-best in the league. Giving up just two fewer passing TDs would have put them in a tie for second-best.
Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp command the supermajority of attention and targets. The key for the Seahawks will be tackling in space, limiting yards after the catch, and keeping everything in front of them.
The line: Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
The pick: I don’t trust LA’s quarterback play, whether Goff suits up or not, as much as I trust Russell Wilson. I’m taking the Seahawks to win and cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) at Washington Football Team (7-9), Saturday at 8:15 p.m. EST on NBC
Key No. 1 for Tampa Bay: Mike Evans
Washington has the second-best pass defense in the NFL and came within about a yard of beating the Rams for the top spot. Evans, Tampa Bay’s top wideout who hyperextended his left knee in the regular-season finale, is a game-time decision for Saturday.
Evans led the squad in targets, catches, receiving yards, catches of 20 yards or more, and receiving touchdowns. Brady and the Bucs have enough weapons on offense to win, but not having Evans would obviously be a major loss for a team going up against a great pass defense.
Key No. 2 for Tampa Bay: Get out to an early lead
The Bucs have the NFL’s third-best scoring offense and its second-best passing offense. Meanwhile, the Washington Football Team is tied for 25th in scoring offense. Washington is 26th in rushing offense and 25th in passing offense.
Washington has scored 23 points or fewer in each of its last five games and 20 or fewer in each of its last three. The Football Team’s offense is not built to score quickly. It’s an offense that does a lot of short check-down passes. If Brady and Bucs can get off to a fast start, Washington will have a very tough time catching up.
Key No. 1 for Washington: Health
Alex Smith is recovering from a strained calf, and their top receiver, Terry McLaurin, and top running back, Antonio Gibson, are recovering from injuries as well. If any of them are unable to suit up, that would be a tremendous loss. They can’t just suit up, though, they have to play well too. Will they play, will they be able to stay on the field, and will they make a big impact?
Key No. 2 for Washington: Getting pressure on Tom Brady
Chase Young, Washington’s standout rookie defensive end who could be the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, and Daron Payne have formed a dynamic defensive line for the Football Team. In past postseasons, Brady has struggled most against teams like the Ravens and Giants, teams that can get a lot of pressure up front rushing just four guys, and that can get him off balance and moving off of his spot.
ESPN’s John Keim did some digging and found that Brady had been sacked just 21 times this year. For quarterbacks who started at least 15 games this season, only three QBs were sacked fewer times. If Young and company can’t move Brady around, they could be in for a very long day.
The line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.0)
The pick: The Bucs are the better team, and this is a pretty easy pick based off of what we’ve seen this season. I’m taking the Bucs to win and cover.
Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Tennessee Titans (11-5), Sunday at 1:05 p.m. EST on ABC/ESPN
Key No. 1 for Baltimore: Lamar Jackson
Last year’s MVP is starting to show off the form that helped him win the award a season ago. Baltimore will only go as far as he can take them. He’s 0-2 in the playoffs and has thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions.
He hasn’t looked sharp in either of them despite the fact that he ran for 143 yards in last year’s playoff loss. His completion percentage in his first playoff start was 48.3%. It was 52.5% last year. That’s not going to cut it.
Jackson needs to strike a balance between stretching the field with Marquise Brown, dumping it off underneath to Mark Andrews, feeding J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, and taking off and running himself. The Ravens, who have won five games in a row, have the makings of a formidable offense, but it doesn’t work if Jackson isn’t efficient and making good decisions.
Key No. 2 for Baltimore: Execution
The Ravens were in position to beat the Titans earlier this season, but self-inflicted errors cost them a shot to win in regulation. They got the ball first in overtime but went three-and-out. The Titans immediately drove down the field and scored.
Baltimore has to limit turnovers and penalties. Those two things let the Titans get back into the game earlier this year. If the Ravens are in a position to put the game away, they need to take advantage of it and execute.
Key No. 1 for Tennessee: Derrick Henry
The NFL’s rushing leader, who almost single-handedly led them to the Super Bowl last year, ran for 2,027 yards this year. That’s the fifth-most rushing yards in a single season in NFL history.
The Ravens did a solid job containing Henry when they played earlier this season, but he burst free for a long touchdown in overtime to win the game in walk-off fashion. The Titans will need to give Henry the ball early and often to wear the Ravens down. He often gets stronger as the game goes along, so if they’re in striking distance, keep your eye on Henry.
He has an astounding 378 carries this season but has averaged 5.4 yards per carry. If he can set up the Titans with five and six-yard gains on first down, the Titans offense becomes much more difficult to predict and stop.
Key No. 2 for Tennessee: COVID-19
This is a pretty simple one. One of the Titans trainers recently tested positive for COVID-19. If other staff or players test positive, just how badly will they be affected?
The line: Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
The pick: I think Lamar Jackson will finally put the pieces together and get his first playoff win. I’m taking the Ravens to win as road underdogs, but I think the Titans will keep it close. Grab the points.
Chicago Bears (8-8) at New Orleans Saints (12-4), Sunday at 4:40 p.m. EST on CBS
Key No. 1 for Chicago: David Montgomery
Montgomery had a breakout this year as he ran for over 1,000 yards and finished behind only Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, and Aaron Jones in rushing yards. He’s a huge part of the Bears offense and has been heating up at the right time for them. He has over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his last six games and has run for a touchdown in each of the last five.
The Saints have the fourth-best run defense in football, so can Montgomery manage to be efficient with his carries and catches out of the backfield? If he’s only picking up between 3 or 4 yards per carry, the Bears offense will get very one-dimensional.
Key No. 2 for Chicago: Mitch Trubisky
Which Mitch Trubisky are we going to see on Sunday? Are we going to see the one that is tentative and makes poor decisions with the football, or are we going to see the one that led the Bears to a 3-1 finish that got them into the playoffs after they were left for dead?
Here were the completion percentages for his last four games: 72.7%, 71.4%, 68.6%, and 78.6%. That’s the kind of efficiency that the Bears need on offense. The defense should be able to do enough to keep them in the game, but can Trubisky help the Bears offense score enough to give them a chance to win?
Key No. 1 for New Orleans: Health
Drew Brees’s health is critical, and Alvin Kamara might not even be available because he tested positive for COVID-19 before the regular-season finale. However, Michael Thomas could return to the lineup and give them a lift at wide receiver. Latavius Murray will have to step up if Kamara can’t play. Kamara is a game-changer and would be a major loss if he’s unavailable for the game. If he does play, how effective will he be, having not practiced and not having been around the team for over a week?
Key No. 2 for New Orleans: Playoff demons
This franchise has suffered some absolutely brutal playoff losses the last few years. I mean, the Minneapolis Miracle and the gut-wrenching uncalled pass interference in the NFC Championship Game in back-to-back years? Controversy and heartbreak struck again last year, when the refs didn’t call offensive pass interference on Minnesota’s Kyle Rudolph, who caught the game-winning touchdown in overtime.
Those last two games have been in New Orleans. Without a true “home-field” advantage, the Saints need to exorcise their playoff demons. Another loss would be catastrophic for the psyche of the players, fans, and the franchise.
The line: New Orleans Saints (-10.0)
The pick: The Saints have the NFL’s fifth-best scoring offense and fifth-best scoring defense. They’re a very balanced team and are very tough to beat, particularly for a team like Chicago. I’m taking the Saints to win and cover.
Cleveland Browns (11-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4), Sunday at 8:15 p.m. EST on NBC
Key No. 1 for Cleveland: COVID-19
The Browns didn’t get to practice much this week. Head coach Kevin Stefanski and Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio are both out after testing positive for COVID-19, and the team had other positive tests as well.
A number of starters are on Cleveland’s reserve/COVID-19 list. They might not know until Sunday who’s available and who isn’t. They also have to decide who’s able to make the trip to Pittsburgh. Not having Bitonio hurts, but not having Stefanski might be even bigger.
Key No. 2 for Cleveland: Run, run, run
The Browns racked up 192 rushing yards and averaged 6.2 yards per carry when they beat Pittsburgh in the regular-season finale. One of the best ways to neutralize the fact that they haven’t practiced much is that they can bleed the clock and control the tempo of the game. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will be tasked with wearing down the Steelers defense. The Browns have the NFL’s third-best run offense. They better use it.
Key No. 1 for Pittsburgh: Get pressure up front
The Steelers lead the league in sacks and are up near the top of a number of other categories. They’re third in pass defense, first in interceptions, third in scoring defense, fifth in third-down defense, sixth in red-zone defense, and second in takeaways.
If they can create pressure, they could force Baker Mayfield into mistakes. Mayfield only has eight interceptions this season, but he’s completing fewer than 63% of his passes. The Steelers will want to get into the backfield as much as possible to disrupt Mayfield and the Browns’ run game.
Key No. 2 for Pittsburgh: Mental game
The Steelers were 11-0 to start the season before they lost to the Washington Football Team. They then lost their next two in a row and three of their next four to close the season. In their four losses, they scored 22 points or fewer.
They need to regain the confidence and belief that fueled them to that undefeated start. They also need a much better push up front from the offensive line than they have been getting. The Steelers are dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per game. That’s unheard of from a franchise that’s typically known as being incredibly physical on both the offensive and defensive line.
The Steelers need to get tough and get nasty. Their season is now on the line, and they’ll be going home if they don’t have the urgency to take the intensity and execution up a couple of levels. They need to stay focused and locked in from the opening kickoff until the game ends if they want to move on to the next round.
The line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.0)
The pick: Baker Mayfield said that the lack of practice won’t have much of an impact. Seriously? I’m taking the Steelers to win but not to cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
