We now have 49% of voting sites in on Colorado’s caucuses, Mitt Romney has just taken the lead over Rick Santorum by a 37%-36%. There are no returns in from Denver County, from Jefferson County just to the west and Arapahoe County just to the south; Republican voters in these three counties are relatively affluent and upscale—favorable country for Romney.
The returns just reported from Douglas County (exurbs south of Denver) and Boulder County (where the scarce Republicans tend to be affluent) are favorable to Romney; he’s carrying Douglas 47%-33% and Boulder 38%-31%. But also out is El Paso County (Colorado Springs), headquarters of James Dobson’s Focus on the Family, where there are lots of culturally conservative Republicans.
But two points here are bad news for Romney. Four years ago 70,000 people participated in the Colorado Republican caucuses. Tonight, with 46% of voting sites in, the voting total is 20,000. That suggests a hugely lower turnout. Second, four years ago Romney, arguably then the most conservative viable candidate at the time, got 60% of the vote in Colorado, to 18% for John McCain. At the moment, his best prospect is for a narrow victory over Rick Santorum, by a percentage far less than that by wide Santorum led him in the Missouri primary and Minnesota caucuses.
