One of the key things to think about when handicapping a presidential nomination battle is not just who is ahead at the moment, but who is most likely to benefit once the field inevitably narrows down and key Republicans begin making endorsements. On that score, Texas Gov. Rick Perry would seem to be a huge threat to Mitt Romney.
If Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is forced to drop out at one point in the race, it seems clear that Perry would be in the better position to pick up support among her Tea Party/social conservative constituency than Romney. You can make arguments both ways for where Herman Cain and Rick Santorum (both of whom endorsed Romney in 2008) supporters may go. But none of those candidates, or Newt Gingrich or Jon Huntsman, have deep enough support to make a huge difference when exiting the race. That moves us to the current non-candidates.
Should Sarah Palin, at some point, decide against running, it’s much more likely that her fan base would fall back on Perry than that they would rally around Romney. It’s also no secret that Mike Huckabee is still holding a grudge against Romney from their 2008 presidential campaign, and if he were to endorse either of the two, it’s much more likely to be Perry. And don’t forget Rudy Giuliani. Perry went out on a limb to endorse the pro-choice Giuliani four years ago, which provoked criticism from social conservatives that is likely to resurface during the current campaign. But on a net basis, Perry’s endorsement is likely to turn out to be a
shrewd move. Assuming he doesn’t run, Giuliani would almost certainly endorse Perry. While Rudy came up far short of the nomination last time around, he still has a following — and even hit 12 percent nationally in a CNN poll taken this month, which was good enough for a not so distant third place, with Romney at 17 percent and Perry at 15 percent. Giuliani would help Perry make a pitch to moderates and national security voters, provide a boost in primary states like New York and Florida (where he’s still popular even if he didn’t win there last time), and introduce him to a huge fundraising base.
It’s actually hard to see where Romney picks up votes if it becomes a Perry vs. Romney race. So that would seem to provide Romney with two hopes of winning. One is that Bachmann and Perry get battered by the media, and by the time the primaries heat up, neither of them looks like they could be electable against President Obama. Or, Bachmann wins Iowa and stays in the race as long as possible — even better, Palin enters the race too — and splits the conservative vote, allowing Romney to squeak through as McCain did in 2008.
