Morning Examiner: Romney’s post-Iowa advantage

Six of the seven latest polls out of Iowa (ARG, Insider Advantage, Des Moines Register, Rasmussen Reports, NBC News, and CNN) show Mitt Romney should squeak out a victory in Iowa tonight. Only the Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling shows Ron Paul in the lead. The only real threat to Romney tonight is a late Rick Santorum surge. But even then, Santorum looks too weak in the follow-up states to post a real threat to Romney.

Next Tuesday, New Hampshire will hold their primary, and Romney is leading in that state with around 41% of the vote according to RealClearPolitics poll tracker. Santorum only registers at 3.5%.

Less than three weeks from now, on January 21st, South Carolina will go to the polls. Newt Gingrich still leads in that state, but a couple million dollars worth of Freddie Mac ads should easily collapse Gingrich’s numbers. Romney is in second with around 21% of the vote while Santorum, again, barely registers at 2.7%.

Then comes the January 31st Florida primary. An NBC News poll from earlier this month showed Gingich in the lead with 44% of the vote, but a much more recent Republican poll of the state had Romney ahead 27%-26%. Santorum, again, is weak with only 1.5% of the vote.

Every non-Romney candidate that gained the spotlight has subsequently wilted. Santorum is just beginning to get that kind of attention now. If he wins, places, or shows in Iowa, that attention will increase. But considering that he voted for every piece of domestic policy that Tea Partiers hate about the Bush administration, it is hard to see how he avoids the same fate as Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Gingrich.

Campaign 2012

Iowa: The Washington Examiner‘s Byron York notes that 45% of all political ads aired in Iowa were attacks on Newt Gingrich and asks, “In GOP ad war, why did Romney get off easy?”

Santorum: Rick Santorum stepped up his attacks on Iowa caucuses front-runner Mitt Romney Monday, telling voters in Newton, “leadership doesn’t come from running a company.” The previous day in Sioux City, Iowa, CBS News reports that Santorum “singled out blacks as being recipients of assistance through federal benefit programs.”

Romney: Occupy Wall Street protesters tried to disrupt a Mitt Romney event in Clive, Iowa, last night, but were shouted down by Romney supporters shouting things like, “Get a job.” Romney added, “Let’s talk about the Constitution again.”

Paul: After ABC News’ Terry Moran asked Ron Paul, “When you lay your head on your pillow at night, do you see yourself in the Oval Office?” Paul replied, “Not really.”

Obama: President Obama’s reelection campaign has been working for months to get Democrats to turn out to Tuesday night’s Iowa caucuses. Obama will address caucus goers live via satellite tonight.

Around the Bigs

The Washington Examiner, Iran missile test points to dangerous 2012 in dealing with Tehran: Iran’s navy successfully test-fired two long-range missiles Monday, a day after Tehran announced it had produced its first nuclear fuel rod.

The Telegraph, Greece will leave euro if second bailout fails: Government spokesman Pantelis Kapsis said Greece will have to leave the eurozone if it fails to clinch a deal on a second, 130 billion euro bailout with its international lenders.

The Wall Street Journal, New Hurdles Loom in Euro Crisis: European governments and banks are competing over increasingly skeptical investors as Spain and Italy must refinance over $200 billion in the first quarter of the year and European banks must refinance another $230 billion.

The New York Times, A Gathering Storm Over ‘Right to Work’ in Indiana: Leaders of the Republican-controlled Indiana state legislature say that when the legislative session opens Wednesday, their first priority will be to push through a right-to-work law.

The Washington Post, Supreme Court case ignites conservative cause against EPA: Conservatives are attacking the EPA over their aggressive enforcement of the Clean Water Act which has ruined a lake-side dream house in Idaho.

Righty Playbook

RedState‘s Erick Erickson reports from Iowa that, “the Santorum surge has ended, or at least stalled.”

At The Corner, Andy McCarthy contrasts Rick Perry’s supposed reverence for the 10th Amendment with his suit against Virginia in federal court trying to get on the March GOP primary.

The Tax Foundation‘s Scott Hodge notes that United States upper-income households pay a higher percentage of income taxes than any developed country in the world.

Lefty Playbook

Commenting on House Majority Whip Eric Cantor’s interview with 60 Minutes, The Washington Monthly‘s Steve Benen notes that Ronald Reagan did raise taxes.

At The Huffington Post, Mark Blumenthal compares Newt Gingrich’s Iowa and national poll numbers to tease out what affect negative television ads had on Gingrich’s campaign.

The New Republic‘s Alec MacGillis argues that Romney’s rich father makes him “an imperfect messenger he is for what he also calls the ‘merit society.’”