Virginia Democratic gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds is going to use the abortion issue against his Republican opponent Bob McDonnell. I think this is a desperation tactic. It contradicts Deeds’s statement in a debate two weeks ago that he would not emphasize social issues, but that’s almost beside the point. The main thing is that 2009 is a year of economic distress, and voters’ minds are mostly on economic issues. McDonnell has been campaigning on jobs and economic growth, and in the process has emphasized his opposition to national Democrats’ position on the unions’ card check bill and the various Democratic health care plans.
This has evidently been working. The most recent polls show McDonnell leading Deeds by 50%-40% in the realclearpolitics.com average. The same metric showed the race tied after Deeds’s impressive come-from-behind victory in the June primary.
Putting on my old hat as a pollster, I have some idea of what inspired this move by the Deeds campaign. You ask respondents to indicate their priorities on various issues and you ask them separately which candidate they favor on each of them. You array the results, listing the issues in priority order and then next to each you show whether your candidate is ahead or behind on that issue. I think the Deeds people had to go pretty far down the list before they saw a + next to abortion.
I suspect the percentage indicating a priority for abortion was in single digits. Voters know that if they elect Bob McDonnell he is not going to criminalize abortion. The Virginia legislature has passed limits on abortion which McDonnell has supported, and nothing much changes for most voters. In addition, I think the enthusiastic pro-abortion rights constituency is tilted toward the older end of the age scale. For many Baby Boomer women “choice” (the brilliant euphemism for abortion rights) is a proxy for the personal choices they have made in their lives which go contrary to what they were told when they were growing up—that they should stay home with the children, downplay a career, etc.
For Millennial Generation women “choice” resonates less strongly, because they were never told those things. And they don’t see how a Governor Bob McDonnell can prevent them from making the choices that are important for them.
Deeds is not the only Democrat to make this desperation move. New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine has an ad ticking off his and his opponent Chris Christie’s positions on abortion, gun control, global warming and renewable energy. It hasn’t helped much yet; he’s down 51%-38% in the realclearpolitics.com average of recent polls.
