The race for New York’s 23rd Congressional District certainly defied many pollsters. On Monday, I headlined a post here at Beltway Confidential “Conservative Hoffman takes dominant lead in New York 23,” citing a new poll showing Hoffman with a double-digit lead. Other surveys showed Hoffman ahead by smaller, but still significant, margins. The polls also suggested that momentum was trending Hoffman’s way.
But by Tuesday night, Hoffman was the loser. What happened? At the moment, we don’t as much information about the voters in New York 23 as we have from the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races, so it’s hard to say with much confidence. But there are a number of questions to ask:
1) How influential was withdrawn Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava’s endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens? Beyond the endorsement, why did so many of Scozzafava’s supporters — who identified themselves as Republicans by about a two-to-one margin — choose Owens?
2) What was the effect of outside players — Sarah Palin, Dick Armey, Tim Pawlenty, Fred Thompson, the Club for Growth and others — who strongly advocated for Hoffman? Were voters turned off by outsiders taking a role in the race? In particular, what was their reaction to the highest-profile of the outsiders, Palin? On the other side, what was the effect of Vice President Joe Biden’s last-minute appeal in the race?
3) How influential, or un-influential, was the Pelosi Effect — that is, Hoffman’s argument that a vote for Owens would be a vote for the Democrats’ big-government agenda in Washington? Did the voters simply not buy it, or was there some other reason they rejected Hoffman?
We’ll likely know a little more about these issues in the next few days. But in the meantime, the surprising results — if you asked most GOP politicos before Tuesday, they would have said they expected to win in New York 23 and lose in New Jersey — should have Republicans asking a lot of questions.
