Last week, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reported that CIA analysts concluded in a July report that Taliban forces may be fighting Nato and U.S. troops into a “stalemate.” This week, the White House had to deny reports that U.S. troops in Iraq would fall to 3000, and that military officials were “livid” over the alleged withdrawal and were suggesting that the decision had been made for the sake of “political optics.”
Even while accepting the White House denial, the specter of election posturing influencing military policy has been raised before. And, with Afghanistan just having experienced the deadliest month of the war for U.S. troops, it seemed like a good time to look at the Afghanistan drawdown of the surge troops.
Based on casualty rates alone, the situation in Afghanistan appears worse now than it did in 2009, and it does not appear significantly improved over 2010, to judge from the number of U.S. troops killed in the first 8 months of that year compared to 2011.
In 2009, 271 U.S. troops died in Afghanistan, with 1517 wounded in action. President Obama announced a surge in December of 2009, saying:
So, no, I do not make this decision lightly. I make this decision because I am convinced that our security is at stake in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This is the epicenter of violent extremism practiced by al Qaeda.
When he announced the withdrawal of the surge troops, President Obama said that al Qaeda had been substantially crippled:
Certainly, we have seen some major successes this year, but the casualty rates for our troops remains troubling and high. We are on pace for a number of deaths comparable to those suffered last year, and more than in 2009, when conditions were so bad that President Obama decided to move forward with the surge.
I pulled the data for those killed in action in Afghanistan, arranging the figures by month for 2009-2011. The the number next to each year at the top of the column is the total number of U.S. troops killed for that year. The figures for August 2011 come from AP reports. All other numbers are officially compiled by the U.S. government.
| 2009 | 271 | 2010 | 437 | 2011 | 268 |
| January | 12 | January | 25 | January | 20 |
| February | 15 | February | 29 | February | 16 |
| March | 11 | March | 22 | March | 23 |
| April | 3 | April | 14 | April | 43 |
| May | 9 | May | 31 | May | 30 |
| June | 20 | June | 49 | June | 39 |
| July | 39 | July | 58 | July | 31 |
| August | 47 | August | 54 | August | 66 |
| September | 35 | September | 30 | ||
| October | 53 | October | 47 | ||
| November | 17 | November | 47 | ||
| December | 10 | December | 31 |
Through August, by my count, the mortality numbers for each year were: 156 (2009); 282 (2010); 268 (2011). In 2010, the U.S. military sustained more fatalities in Afghanistan than in any previous year of the war, according to government reports. In 2011, with the drawdown announced and underway, only 15 fewer soldiers have died this year compared to this time last year. That means we’re on pace for near-record fatalities once again.
With the CIA saying the situation is a stalemate, and reports emerging that the Taliban is invigorated by knowledge of the drawdown, these casualty numbers raise questions: should we have undertaken the troop surge? If yes, then should we be withdrawing them at this time?
