The House Democratic leadership succeeded in passing the Waxman-Markey cap and trade bill by a 219-212 margin. In all, 44 Democrats voted against the bill, and 8 Republicans voted for it. It’s always interesting to examine the roll call on a close vote on an important issue—when members are voting for keeps and when some significant number of members cross party lines. And House roll call votes provide useful clues in gauging the legislation’s possible fate in the Senate.
This bill was passed by the votes of one-third of the nation—the Northeast (New England, NY, NJ, DE, MD) and the Pacific coast (CA, OR, WA, HI), as the following table shows. Just over half the votes cast for it came from those two regions.
UNITED STATES 219 212
Northeast & Pacific 110 31
Rest of US 109 181
To oversimplify just a bit, the one-third of the nation that doesn’t depend on coal for its electricity passed this over the less unanimous opposition of the two-thirds of the nation that does.
This was true despite Democrats’ gains in House seats in the rest of the nation in 2006 and 2008. Seven of the 8 Republicans who voted for the bill came from the Northeast & Pacific; 39 of the 44 of the Democrats who voted against it came from the rest of the nation. By the way, despite the opposition of Greenpeace and some other environmental restriction groups, only 3 of the Democrats who voted against this seem to have done so for similar reasons: Peter DeFazio (OR 4), Dennis Kucinich (OH 10) and Pete Stark (CA 9).
Only three members did not vote on the bill, Jeff Flake (AZ 6), Alcee Hastings (FL 23), and John Sullivan (OK 1). Nancy Pelosi made an exception to the usual custom that the speaker does not vote by casting an aye vote, indicating the importance she attached to the measure.
To gauge the bill’s prospects in the Senate, I’ll break the country down further.
● Northeast (CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, RI, VT). Representatives from these states voted 66-7 for the bill. These 10 states have 20 senators, 17 Democrats and 3 Republicans: Olympia Snowe (ME), Susan Collins (ME) and Judd Gregg (NH). That looks like at least 17 solid votes for a bill similar to the one that passed the House, and perhaps a couple more.
● Pacific Coast (CA, HI, OR, WA). Representatives from these states voted 44-24 for the bill, with 20 of the noes coming from California Republicans (there is one vacancy in California). These states have 8 Democratic senators and no Republicans. Count another 8 for a House-like bill, which brings the number up to at least 25.
● The Germano-Scandinavian Midwest (IA, MN, WI). This is the only other one of the regions I am using for this analysis that voted for the House bill, by a 13-8 margin, all on party lines. These states have 4 Democratic senators and 1 Republican; the Minnesota seat formerly held by Republican Norm Coleman is now vacant but may go to Democrat Al Franken soon if the Minnesota Supreme Court rules as generally expected. Count another 4 or 5 Senate votes for a House-like measure, which gets the number up to 29 or 30, with a live possibility of a couple more.
● The Industrial Heartland (IL, IN, MI, MO, OH, PA). This region voted 41-48 against the bill, mostly on party lines. These states have 9 Democratic and 3 Republican senators. With the exception of IL, with its large nuclear power plants, they tend to depend on coal-fired electricity. Republican senators from these can be expected to oppose a House-like bill, and some Democrats may too. Evan Bayh (IN) is up for reelection in 2010 and his state’s House members voted 2-7 against the House bill, with 3 Democrats crossing party lines. Also, 4 PA House Democrats and 2 OH House Democrats crossed party lines. That leads me to think that Bob Casey (PA), who sees himself as the spokesman for culturally conservative ethnics, and Sherrod Brown (OH), who sees himself as the tribune of unionized industrial workers, cannot be counted as sure votes for a House-like bill. MI House Democrats all voted for the bill, which suggests that their concerns particularly about the auto industry have been assuaged, but the states two Democratic senators, Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow, may seek more concessions. As for Arlen Specter (PA), up for reelection in 2010, who knows? We’re having trouble here getting up to 40 sure votes for a House-like bill.
● The Great Plains and Rocky Mountains (AK, AZ, CO, ID, KS, MT, NE, NV, NM, ND, SD, UT, WY). Representatives from these 13 states voted 13-24 against the House bill. Only the delegations from CO, NV and NM, the three states in this group which voted for Barack Obama, voted for it. These mostly sparsely populated states have much more leverage in the Senate (where they cast 26% of the votes) than in the House (where they cast 9%). Most of them depend on coal for electricity. They have 11 Democratic and 15 Republican senators. The refusal of Kent Conrad (ND) to support the reconciliation process for cap-and-trade suggests that he and his ND colleague Byron Dorgan cannot be counted on to support a House-like bill (ND gets 93% of its electricity from coal and has big coal deposits), and that may be the case also with Tim Johnson (SD), Ben Nelson (ME), Max Baucus (MT) and Jon Tester (MT). Harry Reid (NV), who is proud of putting the kibosh on the Yucca Mountain nuclear repository, will likely support anything the administration does, but what about appointed Senator Michael Bennet (CO), who is up in 2010 and must be aware that Interior Secretary Ken Salazar’s brother John Salazar (CO) voted against the House bill? Better prospects are the just-elected cousins Mark Udall (CO) and Tom Udall (NM); the latter’s colleague Jeff Bingaman (NM) has been more cautious on some energy matters.
● The South Atlantic (FL, GA, NC, SC, VA). These were good states for Barack Obama, who carried 55 of their 78 electoral votes and helped elect Democrats to the House or Senate in FL, NC and VA. Nevertheless representatives from these five states voted 26-41 against the bill. It won pluralities in none of these 5 states. There are 4 Democratic and 6 Republican senators from these states. Bill Nelson (FL), Jim Webb (VA) and Mark Warner (VA) would probably not face too much political peril in supporting a House-like bill; Kay Hagan (NC) might, although I note that Duke Power, headquartered in her state, is one of the firms eagerly gaming cap-and-trade systems.
● The Interior South (AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, TX, WV). Here is the heartland of opposition to the House bill; representatives from these 9 states voted 16-60 against the bill. The AL, LA, OK and WV delegations were unanimously against, with 7 Democrats among the 44 who opposed the House bill. AR and WV both have 2 Democratic senators, whose support for a House-like bill cannot be taken for granted; Mary Landrieu (LA) seems like a sure opponent, as do the 13 Republican senators from these states.
As I have gone down the list, I have stopped trying to tabulate the number of likely Senate votes for a House-like bill, but attentive readers will see that the number is clearly short of 50, much less the 60 needed to overcome a filibuster. This doesn’t mean the fight is over. Senate Democratic and Obama administration vote counters are looking at the same numbers and trying to figure out how to modify the House approach to get the votes needed.
A couple more statistical exercises. The population increases from 2000 to 2008 in the regions favoring the House bill, according to Census Bureau estimates, was 5.9%; the population increase in that period in the regions opposing the House bill was 9.2%. As a result, according to projections by Polidata
, the states whose delegations voted for the House bill will lose a net 5 House seats in the reapportionment following the 2010 Census, and the states who delegations voted against the House bill will gain a net 5 House seats.
If you assume those five seats would represent a shift in votes on the House bill, it would have lost by a 214-217 margin. Of course, that’s just an arithmetical exercise, and I expect that if the House Democratic leaders had actually faced such a counterfactual they would have switched a couple more votes and would have won. But it does suggest that cap-and-trade is not necessarily the wave of the future.
