Around the 2000 election, I wondered if America’s nearly equal partisan split was due mostly to cynical tactical precision among campaign professionals.

The divide wasn’t purely ideological. Both parties, for example, contained and sought the votes of fiscal hawks and drunken sailors. If the Republican and Democratic machines started further apart than 48-48, it wasn’t because the nation was trending significantly one way or the other, just that a candidate and his advisers were failing to do their jobs. Victory hinged on nicking a few voters off the centrist fringe of the army opposite and winning with 50.1% of the nation while the enemy lost with 49.9%.