Gallup is out with its monthly poll results from August, which show Barack Obama’s job approval down at 41%, the lowest of his presidency. His approval among blacks is 84%, among Hispanics 48% and among whites 33%. The following chart shows Obama’s 2008 percentage among each of these three groups and his Gallup approval percentages in January 2009, January 2010, January 2011 and August 2011.
Group 11/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 8/11
Blacks 95 92 91 91 84
Hispanics 67 75 69 60 48
Whites 43 58 41 41 33
As you can see, Obama’s job approval in January 2010 was basically identical with his vote percentages among each group in November 2008; the honeymoon was over but the marriage was still on. His January 2011 figures were elevated by the positive response to his Tucscon speech; but notice that he had lost significant ground among Hispanics. Now his approval among Hispanics is under 50% and only one in three whites approves his performance. This is not a profile which bodes well for his reelection.
Two observations.
Number one: there is no “people of color” bloc of voters in America. The attitudes of Hispanics in 2011, as in November 2008, are arithmetically closer to those of whites than to blacks. Obama’s job approval has declined 8% among blacks since inauguration, 27% among Hispanics and 25% among whites.
Number two: Analysts almost always like to see Hispanics as preoccupied by immigration issues. I wonder. I think Obama’s declining job approval among Hispanics may be due more to economic factors. About one-third of mortgage foreclosures during the 2007-09 recession involved Hispanics, by my estimate, and Hispanics are particularly attracted to the construction industry, which has lost hundreds of thousands of jobs. I suspect Hispanic voters are more disturbed by seeing their dreams destroyed than by worrying about whether they can get their cousins’ status legalized.
And note, of course, that some Hispanics (Cuban-Americans and New Mexicans, for instance) have few or no ties to current or recent immigration. Barack Obama’s failure to deliver on promised immigration legislation—and the refusal of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid to bring such legislation forward when they had supermajorities—may have contributed something to Obama’s decline among Hispanics. But I think more of it is due to reasons similar to his low numbers among non-college whites.
