With former Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin offically out of the race, her endorsement just became the most coveted political prize of every actual presidential candidate’s public relations team. She might stay out of the race, or she might surprise everyone. What might a surprise move from Palin look like?
Could it be Gov. Rick Perry, R-Texas? Perry gave a very warm response to word that Palin won’t run. “Sarah Palin is a good friend, a great American and a true patriot,” Perry said. “I respect her decision and know she will continue to be a strong voice for conservative values and needed change in Washington.”
And as John Fund pointed out, Palin included a shot of herself with Perry supporters in her campaign-style “Iowa Passion” video. That wasn’t an accident. On the other hand, she also attacked Perry for “crony capitalism.” Still, it’s difficult to see Palin backing Romney, who has appeared for most of the campaign to be Perry’s chief rival. Romney would like her support for precisely the same reason she would likely withhold it – they come from opposite wings of the Republican Party and have very conflicting images: Palin, the grassroots populist conservative, while Romney is a wealthy establishment Republican with a sketchy history on conservative issues.
If Palin did support Perry, that might help blunt the HPV criticism he has received from Rep. Michelle Bachmann, R-Minn. Palin could defend Perry on that issue – without endorsing the move, which Perry has admitted was a mistake – in a way that would take the emotional sting out of Bachmann’s critiques. It seems unlikely, at this point, that Palin would endorse Bachmann given the reported tension between the two camps. Maybe more importantly, Bachmann doesn’t look like a winner, at the moment, and it’s difficult to see Palin expending her political capital on a lost cause.
The same argument applies to Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas. Herman Cain is the wildcard here, which might be enough to attract Palin. He has demonstrated very strong support in recent polls. The next debate will focus on economic issues only, which will allow Cain to reiterate and expand his (very popular) 9-9-9 proposal, without having to answer questions about embarrassing statements he’s made on other issues.
At this point, Cain and Perry seem the most likely to attract Palin’s support. If Perry continues to fall and Cain has a strong showing in the debate, maybe Palin – who has said one “doesn’t need a title” to shape the political landscape – would endorse the CEO who has never held public office.
