President Trump unveiled guidelines for “opening up America” on Thursday, but they serve as a reminder that however eager he may be to get back to normal and end the coronavirus lockdowns, it’s likely going to take months to get there under the most optimistic assumptions.
The White House guidelines are just that: a broad vision for what a phased reopening of American life might look like with criteria for moving from one phase of easing restrictions to the other. But Trump has backed off his rhetoric of having total authority to impose a reopening and said the ultimate decisions will be made by state and local officials.
Before even getting to phase one, in which there would be some easing of rules, schools would remain closed, and gatherings would still be limited to 10 people, regions would need to demonstrate 14 days of downward trajectory in suspected and confirmed cases, and hospitals would have to be able to treat people without having to resort to crisis care. After an additional 14 days of meeting the criteria with further declines, regions would be able to move to phase two, which would allow for schools to reopen. Telework would still be encouraged, and there would be restrictions on gatherings of more than 50 people. Only after an additional 14 days would life return to relatively normal, just with added precautions such as social distancing for vulnerable individuals and lower-risk populations limiting time in crowds.
What becomes immediately obvious is that even under the best-case scenario, in which a state meets all of these criteria, it would take six weeks to reach the final stage, which would mean early June.
However, that is likely unrealistic. Especially because on top of meeting all the metrics in terms of declining caseload, states would have to be prepared to have sufficient testing and protocols for tracing the contacts of those infected and providing adequate screening for potential asymptomatic cases. That system does not yet exist.
Also, one aspect of using the decline in cases as a metric is that it means some of the places hit earliest and hardest, such as New York, will be able to start easing up before other states that haven’t had as much of a problem with the coronavirus. Other states could peak later or have a harder time demonstrating declines given a lower baseline.
Put it all together, and it’s a far cry from the impression that somehow, Trump was going to flip a switch and reopen things on May 1, once the current 30-day guidance expires.
This seems more like a plan for Trump to claim that he had a plan to reopen the country without taking responsibility for any second surge in cases that might result from him definitively urging it.
Looking at the details such as they exist, however, is a good indication that it’s going to be hard to get back to normal absent a medical breakthrough that is able to at least offer treatment to those infected.
