We’ve heard a lot about falling turnout in Republican presidential primaries this year, as compared to 2008. So I thought I’d take a look at the numbers after the D.C., Maryland and Wisconsin primaries, using the numbers from Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas website. If I count just primaries held so far, and exclude the non-binding Missouri primary because the 2008 Missouri primary was not just binding but winner-take-all and was seriously contested by three candidates, I find that 10,715,721 votes have been cast so far and that 10,428,036 votes were cast in those states’ primaries in 2008. That represents a turnout increase of 2%.
The story line has been that dropping turnout is bad news for Republicans, because it suggests even less enthusiasm and interest than in 2008, which was a dismal year for the party. The 2% rise is better news for Republicans, but not very much better. It’s a very small increase, less than the population increase in four years, and from a relatively low base, since Democrats had far greater primary turnout in 2008 than Republicans did.
But probing the figures a little more, the picture looks a little better for Republicans. There are sharp differences between the states. Turnout was up 102% in Mississippi, but in 2008 all of John McCain’s opponents had dropped out before the contest. It was up 91% in Wisconsin, which has become hyperpoliticized by Democrats’ campaigns against Governor Scott Walker’s public employee union reforms. It was up 53% in Vermont, from a low base in a small and heavily Democratic state. But some turnout increases came in contests which were pegged as crucial: 35% in South Carolina (which benefited Newt Gingrich), up 15% in Michigan and 14% in Ohio (did this help Mitt Romney or nearly beat him? Hard to tell), up 13% in Alabama and 16% in Mississippi (probably helping Rick Santorum).
Turnout was down sharply in states not considered seriously contested this year. It was down 27% in Mitt Romney’s Massachusetts, down 46% in Virginia where only Romney and Ron Paul were on the ballot, down 28% in D.C. and 26% in Maryland, which as expected went heavily for Romney.
Turnout was also down 14% in Florida, where there was a controversial referendum on the 2008 ballot that brought out what seems to have been an unusual number of voters. If you subtract the Florida figures from the total, on the grounds that the two races weren’t commensurate and because Florida which had the second highest Republican turnout in the 2008 primaries tends to dominate the averages, you have a 6% increase in Republican primary turnout. That starts to look healthy; it’s a little higher than population growth. But it’s still not nearly as big as the Democrats’ 84% turnout increase in between 2004 and 2008 in the 20 states that held primaries up to March 2, 2004, when John Kerry clinched the nomination.
But that’s all the comparison that we’ll really be able to do this cycle. All the states voting from here on in were voting in 2008 after John McCain’s rivals had conceded and he had clearly clinched the nomination. Comparing turnout in still contested races with those in mostly uncontested races is like comparing apples and oranges.
