Congressman Eric Massa of the 29th district of New York has announced that he is retiring. Politico reports that there are allegations that he sexually harassed a staffer and that he has health issues, so let us say it is not clear exactly what precipitated his decision. In addition, this was anything but a safe seat. Massa defeated Republican incumbent Randy Kuhl in 2008 by a 51%-49% margin while John McCain was carrying the district 50%-48%. Massa lost to Kuhl 51%-49% in 2006; George W. Bush carried the district 56%-42% in 2004.
In November Massa voted against the House Democrats’ health care bill, charging that it did not go far enough; it’s a good guess that the Democratic leadership will work to get his vote for the Senate bill.
This district, which covers much of Upstate New York’s Southern Tier and includes some suburbs of Rochester, has been an obvious Republican target since the 2008 results came in. It may also be a target in redistricting. Democrats seem likely to control the process in New York (though their current edge in the state Senate is only 31-30), the state is likely to lose one seat in the reapportionment following the 2010 Census, western Upstate New York has been losing population and the district can fairly easily be carved up among its neighbors. But redistricting will also depend on whether Democrats can hold on to other districts they won in 2006, 2008 and two 2009 special elections; currently they hold 27 of New York’s 29 House districts.
View Michael Barone’s 2010 election map: Are Democrats exiting the sinking ship?
