Morning Must Reads — Parties prefer purity

Low turnout put the Democratic base in charge in Pennsylvania, and party-switching moderate Arlen Specter was not their kind of guy.

Specter lost by 8 points to largely unknown but passionately liberal Rep. Joe Sestak, making Specter the second incumbent senator this year to be unseated (Robert Bennett got tossed at a Utah GOP nominating convention).

The low turnout in Pennsylvania also helped Democrats turn back a challenge from Republicans to pick up the seat held by 36-years by the late earmark maestro John Murtha. The year began with Republicans saying of long-shot bids: But look at Scott Brown. Now Democrats will rejoin: But look at Murtha’s district.

Specter’s loss makes Republican Pat Toomey’s task in November more difficult. Sestak is more liberal than Pennsylvania, but Toomey is more conservative. It’s a toss-up right now.

The race will probably come down to likability and trust, so Pennsylvanians and count on a tsunami of negative ads.

Writer Thomas Fitzgerald takes a great look back at the career of Specter. He may have stayed too long, but his indefatigability is remarkable.

“Specter has served in the Senate longer than anyone in Pennsylvania history, an achievement that might have seemed ludicrous when the then-Republican was losing the 1967 mayor’s race, a reelection campaign as district attorney in 1973, a Republican Senate primary to John Heinz in 1976, and the GOP nomination for governor in 1978, to Richard Thornburgh.

In 1980, Specter tried again for statewide office, capturing the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate and then eking out a 2-percentage-point win over Pittsburgh Mayor Peter Flaherty, a Democratic star of the time. Specter visited every one of the state’s 67 counties to talk to voters in any hamlet, driving through the summer with his son Shanin, now a prominent Philadelphia trial lawyer, as Flaherty vacationed.”

Politco — Lincoln will face Halter in runoff

Under-funded Democrat D.C. Morrison won a remarkable 13 percent of the vote in Arkansas’ Senate primary running on a platform more conservative than some of the candidates on the Republican side.

What can only be considered a protest vote against both incumbent Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter denied Lincoln the 50 percent needed to prevent a runoff next month.

Labor groups and liberal activists are salivating at the chance to take down Lincoln, who opposes card check, global warming fees, and other Obama initiatives. Halter did not impress and may struggle to produce a surge for a runoff with scant turnout, but Lincoln will still have to remain focused on her left to survive.

Republicans rallied behind reasonable-sounding Rep. John Boozman, who can enjoy running in an open lane for three weeks while Democrats claw at each other like badgers in a bag. He was ahead in the polls to begin with and this Democratic civil war may sew up his victory.

Writer David Catanese weighs in:

“Halter’s campaign initially grew out of anger about Lincoln’s opposition to so-called “card check” legislation that would make it easier for unions to organize and her strong aversion to the public option during the health care debate. But as the campaign progressed, the former Social Security administrator took a more populist tact, turning the campaign into a referendum on Lincoln’s time in Washington and her ties to special interests.

But it was Halter who received support from Washington groups, and they immediately promised to double-down their efforts on his behalf in the run-off.”

Wall Street Journal — Tea Party Favorite Notches Big Win

Rand Paul’s victory would have been unthinkable a year ago, but on Tuesday it seemed perfectly ordinary that the son of the man pummeled by the rest of the field in the 2008 Republican presidential primaries for his libertarian ideas would so easily dispatch the candidate groomed by the top Republican in the Senate.

Paul drew well in his Democratic opponent. The few Democrats who turned out chose the callow-seeming Attorney General Jack Conway over the less liberal, battle-hardened Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo.

Conway is a lot like Grayson: an establishment pick and a longtime politician. Democrats will move fast to brand Paul a radical on issues like pot legalization and Social Security, but the eye surgeon has impressed with his cool responses and instincts so far, and if his lead in the polls can withstand the initial assault from national Democrats, they may leave him alone to focus on defending seats in California and elsewhere.

Writer Jonathan Weisman explains:

“Democratic strategists are planning to highlight that Dr. Paul, despite his fervor for smaller government, opposes cuts in Medicare payments to physicians. About half of Dr. Paul’s patients are under Medicare, the candidate says, and he hopes to continue practicing medicine while in the Senate.

But Republican strategists aligned with Mr. Grayson say their hard experience in the primary race shows that Dr. Paul is-well positioned for the November election. They say he has successfully framed himself as the outsider under attack from the establishment, and that a new round of Democratic attacks will only enhance that image.”

New York Times — Colleague Says Blumenthal Claims Grew in Time

Connecticut’s attorney general took the blame for “misspeaking” and using “misplaced words” about military service in a bid to keep his once-unsinkable Senate candidacy afloat.

So Richard Blumenthal’s explanation is that he had intended only to lead people to the wrong conclusion, not to actually lie. Ugh.

His denunciation of the Times’ reporting, refusal to apologize and flat affect tell me that while the situation may not be bad enough for Democrats to try to oust him, Blumenthal has been pretty badly damaged by all this. Just reading the Connecticut news today tells me local reporters sense the same thing. Lots of follow up stories and quotes from outraged veterans balancing out Blumenthal’s spin.

Republicans have a choice in August between Linda McMahon, whom the Times fustily refers to as a “professional wrestling impresario,” and former congressman and actual Vietnam vet Rob Simmons. Blumenthal might have trouble either way, but there’s no doubt that this will help Simmons make a stronger case for his candidacy with the state GOP.

Writers Michael Barbaro and David Halbfinger (What happened to Raymond Hernandez who broke the story?) look at the Vietnamization of Blumenthal.

The conclusion from friends, associates and experts is that Blumenthal felt guilty about his own stateside duty collecting Toys for Tots in the Marine resrves in Washington, was drawn to the camaraderie of combat veterans, and wanted a way to overcome his stiff nature and make instant contact with voters.

Whatever it was, it got deeper as he went along.

“A few weeks ago, [Former Rep. Chris] Shays attended a ceremony with Mr. Blumenthal in Bridgeport, to honor workers killed during an accident. When it was his turn to speak, Mr. Blumenthal at one point brought up the subject of his military service and lamented that when “we returned from Vietnam” Americans had spit on soldiers, Mr. Shays recalled.

“He is the kind of person I cared enough about that I wish I had nipped this in the bud when it was fomenting,” Mr. Shays said.

Washington Post — Indiana Rep. Mark Souder resigns after admitting affair

The Christian faith is predicated on an understanding of man’s imperfection. But still so many Christians brag about their own virtue.

By modern standards, Souder’s scandal is Squaresville. He carried on an affair with a consenting adult woman who was a booster in his northwest Indiana district and a part-time staffer. But because Souder was such a holy roller, crusading against sex and drugs (I assume he had some reservations about rock ‘n roll), his moral blowout provides a rich vein of hypocrisy to be mined.

By talking so often of morality in his 16-year career in Congress, Souder made it almost inevitable that he would eventually do damage to the cause he went to Washington to serve. Pride goeth and all that.

It took House Minority Leader John Boehner took about 30 seconds to tell Souder to get out. A staffer got wise to Souder, confronted the congressman and then went to Boehner. Unlike Republicans who tried to stall on the creepy antics of Rep. Mark Foley in 2006 and the willful ignorance of Democrats about tickle-fan Eric Massa this year, Boehner didn’t dawdle.

Souder is so strange-looking that he might be commended under different circumstances for finding not one but two women who would have constituent relations with him. But as it is, he will quit Congress on Friday, setting up a scramble in his staunchly Republican district. Gov. Mitch Daniels can’t call a special election in less than two months, and might be inclined to just push the special until November to be held concurrently with the vote for the next full term.

GOP leaders will pick Souder’s replacement on the ballot and Democrats have even less hope that nominee Tom Hayhurst can win with Souder, a posterboy for incumbency disease even before his affair was exposed, will be able to win.

Writers Carol Leonning and Mary Ann Akers explain:

“One possible replacement is state Sen. Marlin Stutzman of Howe, who finished second to former senator Dan Coats in this month’s GOP primary for the U.S. Senate.

Stutzman has a connection to Jackson’s husband: Brad Jackson is a friend and pilot who sometimes flew Stutzman around the state for his Senate campaign.”

Wall Street Journal — Mexico’s ‘Eliot Ness’ Seeks U.S. Help

Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s state visit today will refocus the debate on illegal immigration. Calderon and President Obama both denounce the Arizona law that requires police to check the immigration status of criminal suspects.

Members of the administration has been pushing hard against the law, lamenting its passage in human rights talks with the Chinese (!) and heaping scorn on it in congressional hearings. Obama will use Calderon’s complaints to further suggest that the law damages America’s world stature. Like Guantanimo.

There will also be lots of stories about what the first lady wears and what they have for vittles at tonight’s state dinner (Obama favorite Rick Bayless will be doing his deconstructed southwestern thing in the kitchen).

But while Calderon is happy to help the first couple score points on the front page and in the style section, his trip is all about survival.

The war that Calderon started with drug cartels has spiraled out of control (almost 30,000 have been killed in the fighting among cartels and with federal forces), and now a senior minister in his administration has been kidnapped.

With a smallish, poorly-trained and badly corrupted army, Calderon is facing the fall of the Mexican government if he cannot bring the war under control.

His push will be for more direct U.S. intervention to support his government in the face of the mounting threat – more military aid and perhaps even U.S. military advisors.

Writer David Luhnow suggests Calderon grabbed the drug issue after winning a disputed election as a way to galvanize public support but now finds that the issue has grabbed him.

“The Mexican leader doesn’t have much time to show progress before the bloodshed erodes public support. Already some Mexican politicians, like Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard, have suggested they will dump Mr. Calderón’s security policies if they win the 2012 presidential campaign. U.S. officials are also worried.

‘We are at a critical stage…because we don’t know who comes next after Mr. Calderón,’ Anthony Placido, head of enforcement and the Drug Enforcement Administration, told a recent senate hearing.”

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