America’s industrial states will absorb the worst of the Waxman-Markey global warming bill in the form of acute job loss, reduced income and higher energy prices should it become law, according to a new study commissioned by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF).
Nationwide data on the impact of Waxman-Markey included the following key findings: Cumulative loss in gross domestic product (GDP) up to $3.1 trillion (2012-2030), employment losses up to 2.4 million jobs in 2030, residential electricity price increases up to 50 percent by 2030, gasoline price increases (per gallon) up 26 percent by 2030.
Waxman-Markey (H.R. 2494), which passed the House by a 219-212 vote in June, calls for reducing total U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by 83 percent below 2005 levels by 2050. Lisa Jackson, the administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), has already acknowledged that unilateral U.S. actions will not have a significant impact on Co2 levels. Even so, the Senate is expected to release its own version of the legislation in September.
NAM and ACCF released data focusing on the following 15 states: Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. The full report that includes data for the remaining 35 states will be released in the coming weeks.
In Virginia, for example, the NAM/ACCF study estimates that at least 41,400 jobs could be lost by 2030 as a result of lower industrial output that would follow from higher energy prices. Virginia residents would also see their disposable income reduced by $103 to $235 per year by 2020 and $608 to $1,096 by 2030 as a consequence of Waxman-Markey, according to the study.
Energy prices for coal, oil and natural gas would also rise in Virginia under the legislation. “By 2015, gasoline would increase between 6% and 8%, electricity between 2% and 3% and natural gas between 13% and 20%. By 2030, gasoline prices increase between 20% and 26% while electricity prices increase by up to 53% and natural gas by up to 64%,” the study says.
Cap and trade policies have become a point of contention in this year’s Virginia governor’s race.
“I am the only candidate who has recommended a comprehensive approach to energy involving clean coal and natural gas,” said Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate. “We’ve got significant supplies in Southwest Virginia. I’m also a strong supporter of offshore drilling, we could drill 50 miles off the coast for oil and natural gas and this would mean millions of dollars in tax revenue and thousands of new jobs.”
McDonnell also said he favors expanding nuclear power as part of a comprehensive energy plan supports investments in practical clean energy technology that would not raise electricity costs.
“Climate change is a very complex issue and I hope Senators will look closely at this study as they consider climate change legislation this fall,” said Jay Timmons, executive director of NAM. “At a time when our country is struggling to come out of our longest and deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression, lawmakers should be focused on policies that provide incentives for businesses so they can create jobs and grow. Unfortunately, this study confirms that the Waxman-Markey Bill is an ‘anti-jobs, antigrowth’ piece of legislation. Further, leaders of countries such as China and India have made it clear they have no intention of reducing their own emissions. Waxman-Markey would give an edge to overseas competitors, discouraging domestic investment and the creation of American jobs.”
The Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) was responsible for conducting the study using using NAM and ACCF input assumptions.
