If you are a conservative this isn’t really news: President Obama’s decision to force his health care regulation law through Congress against the American people’s wishes cost Democrats their majority in the House of Representatives. But many liberals are still in denial. They either have not come to grips with the fact that Obamacare is, was, and will always be unpopular, or they believe other factors, like the bad economy, are more to blame for their epic 2010 defeat at the polls.
But now, a new study by a group of liberal political scientists provides strong new evidence that Obamacare is to blame for the House Democrat collapse. The paper, titled “One Vote Out of Step? The Effects of Salient Roll Call Votes in the 2010 Election,” examined the effects of three unpopular votes House Democrats made in the 111th Congress: 1) Obama’s stimulus plan; 2) cap and trade; and 3) Obamacare. The paper found that a Democratic incumbents’ vote for Obamacare had the strongest association with lower vote share in November 2010. “Support for controversial legislation causes voters to see their representatives as more ideologically distant,” the paper explains.
The study then simulated a counterfactual where vulnerable Democrats voted against Obamacare instead of for it. “In this scenario, Democrats would have retained an average of an additional 25 seats and would have had a 62 percent chance of winning enough races to maintain majority control of the House,” the report found.
Will Obama learn anything from this paper going forward? Obamacare has only become more unpopular since it became law and the Supreme Court will hear a challenge to its constitutionality later this month. If the law is truck down, will Obama let it die quietly, or will he force Democrats to defend at the ballot box again this November?
Campaign 2012
Santorum: The Washington Examiner‘s Steve Contorno reports on how supposedly blue-collar Rick Santorum used Washington-insider connections to buy, and refinance, his $2 million home in suburban Virginia.
Romney: The Romney campaign reports they raised $11.5 million in February and currently have $7.3 million cash-on-hand.
Around the Bigs
USA Today, Gas prices must come down, consumers say: An overwhelming number of consumers — 85% — tell Gallup that Obama and Congress should take “immediate” action to keep a lid on prices. After nearly four weeks of daily price increases, regular gasoline averages $3.76 a gallon nationwide.
Gallup, U.S. Unemployment Up in February: U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 9.1% in February from 8.6% in January and 8.5% in December. Gallup’s numbers are not seasonally adjusted the same way that the official government unemployment numbers are.
The Hill, House approves JOBS Act in 390-23 vote: Yesterday, the House passed the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act by a 390-23 vote that saw 158 Democrats join every voting Republican in support of the bill.
The Washington Examiner, DeMint signals he may not support Ryan budget: After unveiling his own budget plan that balances the budget in five years, Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., said he could not support any budget that does not balance the budget in ten-years. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s FY 2012 budget did not balance till 2040.
The Wall Street Journal, Greece Passes Key Debt Test: Greece announced this morning, that 83 percent of Greek-government bondholders had voluntarily agreed to a debt-restructuring deal that gave them less than one-half the face value of their bond holdings.
The New York Times, White House Works to Shape Debate Over Health Law: The White House has begun an aggressive campaign to defend Obamacare in the run up to Supreme Court arguments over the law, including a prayer vigil, outside the court when justices hear arguments for three days beginning March 26.
Righty Playbook
RedState‘s Erick Erickson urges conservatives to support Rep. Don Manzullo, R-Ill., over Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., in the upcoming Illinois primary. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor has backed Kinzinger.
The Wall Street Journal’s Kim Strassel echoes Examiner editorial page editor Mark Tapscott’s Thursday column in recommending that Romney explicitly address conservatives who oppose him.
At The Corner, Veronique de Rugy explains why conservatives should not support the Export-Import Bank.
AEI‘s Taryn Hochleitner identifies three flaws in Obama’s education-policy-by-waiver plan.
Lefty Playbook
Talking Points Memo‘s Pema Levy outlines how Obama will attack Romney on immigration.
The Huffington Post‘s Sam Stein outlines how Obama will attack Romney on his Swiss bank account.
Firedoglake‘s David Dayen points to a poll showing the birth control issue is hurting Republicans in battleground districts.
