Which party is the majority party? Democrats like to note that their nominees have won pluralities of the popular vote in six out of the last seven elections. Republicans like to point out that their party has won majorities of the House in 10 of the last 12 House elections (and popular-vote pluralities in nine of the last 12).
Both claims are accurate, as far as they go. But the fact is that in this era of partisan polarization and partisan parity, both parties have had difficulty in winning actual majorities (as in 50 percent plus one) of the popular vote.
In the seven presidential elections starting in 1992, Democrats have won popular-vote majorities just twice, in 2008 and 2012, and Republicans just once, in 2004.
In the 12 elections to the House starting in 1994, Democrats have won popular-vote majorities just twice, in 2006 and 2008, and Republicans have won popular-vote majorities five times, in 1993, 2002, 2004, 2010 and 2014.
In other words, in 14 tries, both major parties have won popular vote majorities in presidential elections just three times. They have failed to get 50 percent 11 times. And in 24 tries, both major parties have won popular-vote majorities in House elections just seven times. They have failed to get 50 percent 17 times.
Democrats were the party winning the highest percentage in presidential and congressional elections, in 2006 and 2008. But in retrospect, that period looks like a giant exception to the rule. Especially in House elections. If you look at the percentages for the elections from 1994 to 2004 and from 2010 to 2016, the highest percentage (rounded off) for Democrats was 49 percent and the lowest percentage for Republicans was 48 percent. On average in these two periods, Republicans had a 3 percent plurality over Democrats in House popular vote, while Democrats had an average 3 percent plurality over Republicans in presidential popular vote.
Little wonder that neither party’s seers’ prediction of an enduring Republican or Democratic majority have come true yet. Which party is the majority? Neither.
