In the very close race to succeed the late Rep. Jack Murtha, D-Pa., there has always been a factor in the background tilting the race toward the Democrats. The special election happens to be on May 18, the same day as the state’s closed primaries. There are no big statewide primaries on the Republican side, but there are two major ones on the Democratic side — for governor, and for Senate.
This was supposed to translate to an insurmountable Democratic turnout advantage in a district dominated by conservative-leaning Democrats, which was supposed to push former Murtha staffer Mark Critz, D, over the finish line. But Roll Call reports that the Democrats’ gubernatorial primary is now proving to be a real snooze. This might deprive Democrats of the turnout advantage they had expected:
…When Gov. Ed Rendell (D) in February called the special election for the same day as the statewide primary, Democrats were expected to get a huge boost from the big registration advantage in the 12th district. But with Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato leading the Democratic gubernatorial primary by double digits in the polls, it’s no longer likely that his battle with Pennsylvania State Auditor General Jack Wagner, who comes from the same region, will drive turnout in the district.
