Since I posted our first whip count, there have been a number of new developments. First, a handful of Democratic Congressmen who voted for health care in November have declared or hinted that they will vote “no” this time. Second, two “no” voters from November once believed to be in play — Reps. Ike Skelton of Missouri and Tim Holden of Pennsylvania — have since declared themsevles firm “no’s”.
Here is our updated whip list for the expected House vote on the Senate’s health care reform bill. The House vote in November was 220-215, but three “yes” voters have since left the House and the lone Republican who supported it has promised to vote “no.” Moreover, a handful of last time’s “yes” votes were conditioned on an pro-life rider missing from the new bill. The “Stupak Group” of perhaps 12 pro-life Democrats — including Reps. Bart Stupak (Mich.), Jim Oberstar (Minn.), Marion Berry (Ark.) Joe Donnelly (Ind.), and Dan Lipinksi (Ill.). — will vote “no” this time around.
Reps. Mike Arcuri, (N.Y.) Mike Capuano (Mass.) and Luis Gutierrez (Ill.) — liberals who voted “yes” in November — have also said they may vote “no” this time.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., will need 216 votes to guarantee passage, meaning she might need to turn at least 10 or 11 of last time’s “no” voters to win for sure.
The members in red are the ones most likely to drop their opposition, flip and vote “yes” this time:
John Adler, N.J. – On Fox News Sunday, he didn’t quite rule out voting “yes”: “If the House and the Senate can’t work out cost containment, I don’t see how I support a bill that doesn’t help our business community and create more jobs, he said.” (Fox News Sunday, Mar. 7, 2010)
Jason Altmire, Pa. – Altmire equivocated this weekend on Fox News Sunday, saying he has an “open mind” about it. “I have to make a decision between passing this bill…or doing nothing. And I’m weighing the balance between the two.”
Brian Baird, Wash. – Baird’s office told The Examiner March 10 that he is still undecided.
John Barrow, Ga. – He always has close races in his Savannah-area district, which was made significantly more Republican through mid-decade redistricting. A “yes” vote might end his career. He has not indicated how he will vote, nor has he responded to inquiries from The Examiner.
John Boccieri, Ohio – Boccieri tells The Examiner that he is still undecided as of Mar. 10.
Rick Boucher, Va. – He is considered by the AP one of those most likely to flip. But Boucher has resisted his party’s leadership in the past — for example, when he voted against McCain-Feingold. This year, he faces the fight of his career against the state House Majority Leader. His office has not responded to inquiries by The Examiner.
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Allen Boyd, Fla. – Although I originally counted him among the likely “nos,” Boyd has made some awfully fishy statements about the Senate bill lately. His office still has not responded to The Examiner’s inquiries.
Lincoln Davis, Tenn. – His office tells The Examiner that he remains undecided.
Bart Gordon, Tenn. – He is retiring, and considered by the Associated Press to be among those most likely to flip. In light of his recent comments, this seems quite likely. “He is not going to be making a final decision until he sees the final language,” he told The Examiner.
Suzanne Kosmas, Fla. – Her district was drawn for a Republican, but she defeated former Rep. Tom Feeney, R-Fla. by exploiting his relationship with now-imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Her office has not responded to The Examiner’s inquiries, but some consider her a prime candidate to flip and vote “yes.”
Betsy Markey, Colo. – Her re-election chances in her Republican district could be slim in a bad year for Democrats, but she isn’t ruling out a “yes” vote. Her office has not responded to The Examiner’s inquiries.
Jim Matheson, Utah – Just as he began to contemplate his vote, President Obama appointed his brother Scott to a federal judgeship. Good timing. Matheson told The Deseret News that he is undecided. “He has not announced how he will vote,” his office told The Examiner.
Scott Murphy, N.Y. – The victor in a 2009 special election, Murphy is a fan of a single-payer health care system. His office did not reply to The Examiner’s inquiries.
Glenn Nye, Va. – Nye, who defeated former Rep. Thelma Drake, R-Va., is among those considered most likely to switch and vote “yes,” but his office did not respond to The Examiner’s inquiries.
John Tanner, Tenn. –Tanner is retiring. His staff recently released a statement that leaves him open to switching: “Until we know what that bill will include, how will it be brought to the floor and what the Congressional Budget Office says regarding its cost, there is no way for [Congressman] Tanner to declare his support or opposition.” His office did not respond to The Examiner’s inquiries.
Harry Teague, N.M. – This freshman already polls behind his Republican challenger, who previously represented his district. He has given no clear indication as to how he will vote, and his office has not responded to inquiries by The Examiner.
Among those likely to vote “no” again:
Dan Boren, Okla. – Boren, who has a very conservative record, told Fox Business that his colleagues will have to walk across his dead body to get his vote, which puts him solidly in the “no” camp.
Bobby Bright, Ala. – Bright, who narrowly won in a heavily Republican district in 2008, told The Daily Caller that he is voting “no.”
Ben Chandler, Ky. – Chandler, already under fire for his support of cap-and-trade legislation last year, told the PlumLine that he will vote “no” on health care reform once again.
Travis Childers, Miss. – His office did not immediately respond to The Examiner’s inquiries.
Artur Davis, Ala. – The Rev. Jesse Jackson came out of hiding to accuse Davis, an African-American, of being a race-traitor for voting “no” in November. But Davis is running for governor, and not only does he plan to vote “no” again, but he promised to leave the campaign trail if necessary and return to Washington to do so.
Chet Edwards, Tex. – He told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that he will vote “no.”
Parker Griffith, Ala. – After the November vote, he switched parties and became a Republican. Good luck changing his mind.
Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, S.D. – She told the Rapid City Journal she is a “no” vote.
Tim Holden, Pa. – In a Mar. 10 interview, he said he will not be voting for the Senate bill.
Larry Kissell, N.C. – He told The Daily Caller that he is a “no” vote.
Frank Kratovil, Md. – A freshman in a tough rematch for re-election, Kratovil told the Annapolis Capital last week that he will vote “no,” if the House is asked to pass the Senate version of the health care bill.
Dennis Kucinich, Ohio – Kucinich voted against the House bill because he wants a single-payer system or nothing. He is considered likely to vote against it again. Then again, he was also pro-life until the moment he decided to run for president.
Jim Marshall, Ga. – He told the Daily Caller that ObamaCare will bankrupt the country. He’s a “no.”
Eric Massa, N.Y. – Here’s one Democrat who cannot be turned. He resigned from the House under a cloud of scandal, and over the weekend angrily accused Democratic leaders of railroading him because he voted “no” last time. He might have flipped if he’d stayed, but we’ll never know.
Mike McIntyre, N.C. – He participated in a December event in which members of Congress prayed for the failure of ObamaCare.
Mike McMahon, N.Y. – A Democrat representing Republican Staten Island, McMahon told the Staten Island Advance last week that he will vote “no.”
Charles Melancon, La. – He is locked in an uphill battle to unseat Republican Sen. David Vitter that goes from hard to hopeless if he changes his vote to “yes.”
Walt Minnick, Idaho – After the Associated Press published a report that he might change and vote “yes,” he called AP to say he will not be voting for this bill.
Peterson, Minn. – Peterson told Minnesota Public Radio that he will vote no.
Mike Ross, Ark. — Ross, who at first threatened to block the House bill in committee, relented, but he then voted against it under heavy pressure from constituents. He told The Daily Caller that he is a definite “no” vote.
Heath Shuler, N.C. – He told a local newspaper he will vote against any attempt to pass health care using reconciliation.
Ike Skelton, Mo. – Skelton, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, will vote “no.”
Gene Taylor, Miss. – One of the most conservative Democrats in the House, Taylor is among those least likely to bend. Although not definitive, his recent statements about the bill in his district give a strong impression that he is a “no” vote, and his office tells The Examiner that this impression is correct. “He does not support the bill,” his spokesman said.
