Michael Barone has a persuasive piece on why Rep. Michele Bachmann’s adept political touch in Iowa makes her the front-runner to win the Ames Straw Poll. But I’ve been assuming that Rep. Ron Paul’s rabid fan base, which has propelled him into first in many straw polls this year, will put him over the top on Saturday.
Chris Cillizza has argued that Paul’s success in straw polls is due to the fact that they usually have very small turnout, whereas Ames is quite large by straw poll standards. He notes that in 2007, Paul finished fifth, with 1,305 votes in Ames.
But I don’t think that’s a relevant comparison.
When Paul launched his candidacy last time, his team was just winging it and figuring out things as they went along — and they weren’t really trying to win the straw poll. This time, Paul spent $31,000 to secure the top placement at the event and by all accounts has been making an earnest attempt to win.
Were Paul to win, I imagine it would be used more to discredit the poll than to start to take him seriously as a viable candidate, which could play into the hands of Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty if he has a poor showing.
