If Florida moves it’s primary to January, as expected, despite Republican National Committee rules to the contrary, the state will have less of an impact on the Republican nomination process because of the proportional representation and loss of delegates that would ensue according to RNC rules; such a sequence would benefit Gov. Rick Perry, R-Texas.
With two top-tier candidates in Perry and former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., the current Republican field increasingly recalls the 2008 Democratic primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Originally, the Democratic National Committee penalized Florida for holding its primary ahead of schedule, but granted a compromise that significantly diminished the sting. Florida Republicans must hope the RNC will also back down.
Paul Senft, Florida’s National Committeeman to the Republican National Committee, argued against the move today in an email, saying that Florida could “lock up the lead and momentum for a candidate” if the winner received Florida’s full 99 delegates, but warned the state would “have little, if any, impact on the delegate count for any candidate” because even the winner could receive as few as 14 delegates if the RNC takes half Florida’s delegate votes and awards them on a proporational basis. In Senft’s scenario, the second place finisher gets 10 delegates. That means the winner would go from having a 99 point boost over his opponents from Florida to a 4 point gain. If this race comes down to a Romney-Perry fight, that 95 point swing could consign the GOP to a protracted state-by-state nomination process, because there might be no clear leader after a diminished Florida casts its votes.
It’s hard to see why Florida would weaken itself so, except that they assume the RNC will blink. If Florida moves up and keeps it’s full delegation, then the state could conceivably make more money on the primary process – which is why one out-of-state critic accused them of “pure greed” today.
How would this affect the primary process? At the moment, it appears that Perry would likely benefit, as a poll today shows that 63% of voters in Florida disagree with his characterization of Social Security as a Ponzi Scheme. Perry faces an uphill battle among senior citizen voters. By the same token, Romney suffers from the move, as the big stick that he has beaten Perry with over recent weeks loses its impact. Perry might survive even losing in Florida, under the projected loss of delegates following a primary move.
Of course, Republican voters around the nation might prefer Perry not to win the primary if he cannot win senior voters to his side, but Florida seems bent on lowering the bar.
