If history is any guide, gas prices in swing-states are too high for President Obama to win the electoral votes necessary for his reelection, according to pollster Gene Ulm.
“If we look at EVERY Purple state, the average gas price is $3.71. Carter and H.W. Bush lost with $2.06 (in today’s dollars) and NO party has maintained control of the White House with gas prices over $2.43 (in today’s dollars),” Ulm wrote on his Public Opinion Strategies blog. “Losing all nine Purple states combined would give President Obama a 112 electoral vote haircut, dropping him from 365 to 253 and Obama would lose a close one.” Ulm defines a “purple state” as one that George W. Bush won in 2004, but Obama carried in 2008, and he notes that Republicans have won five of the nine swing states in eight out of the last 13 presidential elections.
President Obama acknowledged the threat posed to his presidency this afternoon. “Do you think the President of the United States going into re-election wants gas prices to go up higher?” he said to a reporter during today’s news conference.
“If you doubt it, compare the price at the pump one-termers Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush faced going into their re-election battles ($2.58, in today’s dollars) versus that of two-termers Bill Clinton and George W. Bush ($2.06),” Ulm suggests. “Fifty-two cents is the difference between four more years in the White House or playing A LOT MORE golf.”
