Paul. Back in 2007 Paul got 1,961 votes; this year he got 4,671. At that rate of increase he might expect to get 11,126 next time. Of course, this intervening four years included a collapse of the financial system, which made Paul’s criticism of the Federal Reserve and fiat money more relevant and more pressing. Iowa Republicans were afraid a Paul win would delegitimize the straw poll and by extension the precinct caucuses on the theory that a candidate with a strong core of supporters but no demonstrated capacity to widen his constituency would deter others from participating. Paul’s second place finish may reduce this danger. But if you were running Mitt Romney’s or Rick Perry’s campaign, you might well consider skipping the Iowa caucuses altogether and leave them to Ron Paul and the Minnesota non-twins. The contrary thinking is that Perry might want to seek a victory before South Carolina—and he got 4% of the straw poll votes as a write-in, some on the basis of his announcement speech—and, less likely, that Romney might calculate that wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would cinch the nomination for him.

Pawlenty. Was this third place finish, with about half as many votes as Bachmann or Paul, enough to keep Pawlenty seriously in the race? Unclear. He might want to stay in and run on the strategy that worked for John McCain in 2008: wait for all the other candidates’ strategies to fail. If you assume that Bachmann will fade under scrutiny, that Perry will make unforced errors, that Romney will eventually be undermined by what Pawlenty in the Examiner-Fox debate was finally induced to once again call Obamneycare, then in those circumstances it’s possible to imagine Pawlenty emerging as an acceptable alternative to many Republican primary voters and caucusgoers. All this is possible to imagine, but is it possible to finance? Pawlenty has no personal capacity to finance a campaign and his contributors, attracted to a candidate who seemed acceptable to all factions of the party, may not be willing to add more to their original ante. Pawlenty’s straw poll effort was impressively organized and one must assume he pretty much maximized his potential. But he got only about half as many votes as Bachmann (or Paul) and not all that many more than Santorum or Cain. It’s a long slog from this straw poll in mid-August to the Iowa caucuses some time (presumably) in January. Pawlenty’s credentials are not the same as McCain’s. It’s not clear that he can follow that precedent.

Santorum. Outside the Hilton Auditorium he was saying he would be happy finishing fourth and fifth. He finished fourth. But, as he has pointed out, he has put an immense amount of time and psychic energy on the campaign trail in Iowa, and it resulted in just 10% at the straw polls. Candidates have gone on to the Iowa caucuses with this level of straw poll support (Tancredo, Paul, Tommy Thompson in 2007-08; Gary Bauer in 1999-2000), but those precedents are not propitious. Santorum has also been working New Hampshire and South Carolina hard too, and he has strong convictions, so he may just go on going on. He’s not a guy who has sought to cash in on his 14 years in Congress, and he presumably doesn’t have anything else on his schedule.

Herman Cain. He got enormous applause from 100% of the crowd when he spoke in the Hilton Coliseum and he got 9% of the straw poll votes. But why shouldn’t he continue? He doesn’t have to run an expensive campaign and he’s obviously enjoying himself immensely.

Gingrich. In his appearances recently Newt seems more and more the history teacher, reminding Iowans of what happened back in the 1980s (and noting his own part in those things) and even in the 1940s. He got some favorable comments on his debate performance and if he seems not to be enjoying himself as fully as Herman Cain is—he’s seen himself as a possible president for a long time—he somehow avoids fatigue despite an endless series of appearances before 10 or 20 voters each.

Perry. I think it’s fairly impressive for him to have gotten 4% of the votes, from an electorate that didn’t know much if anything about him and from some straw poll attendees who came to Ames intending to vote for someone else. Anecdotal evidence suggests his votes came mainly from those who saw his announcement speech in Charleston. He’s coming to Waterloo tomorrow, where he and Michele Bachmann will both appear at the Black Hawk County Republican dinner. That suggests Perry intends to seriously contest the Iowa caucuses, and from his point of view Pawlenty’s failure to finish first or very close to the leaders eliminates a possible serious opponent.

Romney. He sailed above controversy at the Washington Examiner-FOX News debate and then skedaddled out of the state before he could be accused of risking anything here. Obviously his 4,516 straw poll voters four years ago didn’t have any deep personal attachment to him. When he let it be known he wouldn’t seriously contest the Iowa caucuses, I and others assumed it was because he didn’t want to compete in an electorate dominated by Christian conservatives (60% in 2008 self-identified as religious conservatives). Cultural issues seem clearly less important this year, although I noted that Michele Bachmann in her Hilton Coliseum speech made sure to make reference to the importance of religion. I think he continues to skip Iowa and base his hopes on New Hampshire and, if not South Carolina, other contests afterwards. For one thing the Nevada caucuses seem a sure thing for him; half the voters there last time were members of the Mormon church.

Huntsman. His debate performance was surprisingly bad. Who were those 69 people who voted for him? But he’s basing his (increasingly dim) hopes on New Hampshire and South Carolina.

McCotter. I think the ideas McCotter is attempting to inject into the campaign are important and that he provides an interesting framework in which to think about future public policy. The Michigan legislature recently adopted a redistricting plan that gives him a safe district, and I think he’s running to promote his ideas, notably the need to recapitalize the big banks and put them on a sound footing so lending and growth can begin again. Timothy Geithner and Ben Bernanke haven’t done that; a Republican Treasury secretary and Bernanke or a new Fed chairman will need to do so if a Republican presidency is not going to have a serious chance to face the kind of economic non-recovery the Obama administration is facing now.

Romney. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. It does say something interesting about these contests that a candidate who drew 4,516 supporters to this event four years ago got just 567 votes this year.

Palin. The Iowa Republican party didn’t announce whether she got any write-in votes, but by calculation she could not have gotten more than 218 votes and presumably she got even fewer. Reasonable conclusion: her appearance at the Iowa State Fair yesterday produced a lot fewer votes than Rick Perry’s announcement speech in Charleston.