One thing pollsters have a hard time projecting is turnout, and it’s likely to be a critical factor this year. How many of those people telling pollsters — especially robocall and Internet pollsters — that they support Donald Trump will actually vote? Which of our two parties’ candidates will arouse more enthusiasm among their voters and thereby tip a roughly evenly balanced electorate their way?
But polls can provide clues, and a Rasmussen poll provides evidence that this year, unlike 2008 and to a lesser extent 2012, the balance of enthusiasm favors Republicans. Rasmussen, a robocall poll, asked respondents identifying themselves as likely voters whether they were looking forward to this year’s presidential race or whether they had had enough of the race even though the first votes have not yet been cast.
Overall, 58 percent said they were looking forward to the race, while 37 percent said they have had enough. But the responses of Republicans and Democrats were very different. Among Republicans, 71 percent are looking forward and 25 percent have had enough. Among Democrats, 50 percent are looking forward and 44 percent have had enough. An astonishing (and likely overstated) 79 percent said they have watched at least some of the presidential debates, with 70 percent saying they watched those of both political parties. Some 25 percent watched only Republican debates and a pitifully low 5 percent watched only Democratic debates. That’s in line with the television ratings which have shown significantly higher viewership of Republican debates — in contrast to 2008.
To some extent these results may just be an indication that voters tend to find the Republican race more interesting. But they also may indicate that Republicans are more eager to vote than Democrats. With a significant percentage of self-identified Democrats deeming virtually-certain-nominee Hillary Clinton as dishonest and untrustworthy, that’s not too surprising. Whether this apparent Republican advantage in enthusiasm will hold up when the results of the caucuses and primaries become known is unclear, but for the moment these results are a sign that Clinton may have a hard time replicating Obama 51 percent 2012 coalition. That year Obama received 3.5 million fewer votes than in 2008, while Mitt Romney received only 1 million more than John McCain had four years before. Extrapolate that trend out into next November, and you have an almost exactly even popular vote. I’ll be on the lookout for more clues to the balance of enthusiasm, including turnout in the caucuses and primaries.
