Since leaving the Bush White House, domestic policy staffer Keith Hennessey has been writing an excellent blog, using his experience in the White House and as a top Senate staffer to analyze the substance and political viability of the major proposals of the Obama administration and the Democratic congressional leadership. He’s clearsighted and fairminded and clearly tries not to let his own preferences influence his assessments of what is likely to happen. In his latest assessment of the health care bill, he’s revised his estimates of the likely outcomes, and says there’s a 65% chance that either a much more limited bill becomes law or no bill becomes law. “Leader Reid raised expectations by asserting there was a deal when there really wasn’t,” he concludes. “If the deal collapses, it’s not just a loss of momentum, it’s moving in reverse. Cloture would not be invoked, and the week could end with a partial implosion.” I’m not sure I agree with all his projections, but as with everything he’s been writing, it’s worth reading the whole thing.
