Joe Biden enjoyed such a smashing victory in South Carolina that the race was called as soon as polls closed. This is a much-needed shot in the arm of a campaign that had been flailing for weeks, as Biden’s best performance before today was a very distant second in Nevada.
The victory in South Carolina helps support an argument his campaign has been making: that his fortunes would improve once the Democratic race moved to areas with a larger percentage of black voters. According to exit polls, Biden won 60% of black voters, who made up 56% of the electorate.
This bodes well for Biden, because upcoming contests on Super Tuesday, March 3, include states that also have a much larger population of black voters than the earlier states — including North Carolina, Alabama, Florida, Arkansas, and Virginia.
The big outstanding question is whether Biden can translate his massive win in South Carolina into wins on Super Tuesday in just three days. Given how close it is, we are unlikely to see much polling reflecting any sort of bounce for Biden, so two theories are likely to be debated over the coming days.
One argument is that the short time frame between South Carolina and Super Tuesday works greatly to his advantage, as the days leading up to the vote will be dominated by coverage of the Biden “comeback.” Any bounce he gets is unlikely to wear off by the time voters go to the polls.
Furthermore, when there were doubts about Biden, it precipitated a surge in support for Michael Bloomberg, who has been blanketing the Super Tuesday states with ads. After Bloomberg’s shaky debate performances and Biden’s big win in South Carolina, it’s possible that those voters who migrated in February will quickly come back to Biden.
The other argument is that it may be too late for Biden. His string of losses in February likely impacted his fundraising, which meant he had less of an opportunity to take out ads and build up his infrastructure in Super Tuesday states, in stark contrast to Sen. Bernie Sanders and Bloomberg.
Even if money rolls in after South Carolina, there won’t be much time to deploy it before Tuesday. Also, many states allow early voting. In California, the biggest prize, the state began accepting mail ballots before the results of Iowa caucuses were known, and by the time the Nevada caucuses were held, 1.3 million of them had been returned. So that means a lot of votes were cast during the time that Biden’s campaign was reeling.
Early voting across the 16 contests may not be significant enough to rule out a Biden comeback, but it could make a difference in areas where the race ends up being close. At the very minimum, it could place an upper limit on any bounce.
Either way, Biden now has a strong case to make that he’s the most viable candidate for those seeking an alternative to Sanders. South Carolina has exposed the weaknesses with black voters of other candidates competing to be the anti-Sanders. Pete Buttigieg won 3% of black voters, and Amy Klobuchar did even worse, with just 1% support. Not only does that effectively make it impossible for either to win the Democratic nomination, but it also seriously undermines their electability argument in November, given how crucial black voters are to the party.
