Hillary Clinton certainly channeled her inner Obama in Sunday night’s Democratic debate; Jonathan Martin has a good take on this in the New York Times. Why the obsequiousness toward Obama? Clearly she is contemplating the possibility of losing to Bernie Sanders in both Iowa and New Hampshire and looking to the primaries beyond. My sense is that most black voters not only strongly support Obama, but feel that he is disrespected and judged more unfavorably by others than a white president with an identical record would be. Clinton spoke to this by praising him generously and by suggesting that Sanders’ health care proposals would undo Obama’s signature domestic achievement, Obamacare, which she even called by that name.
Black voters made up only 4 percent of Iowa caucusgoers and 1 percent of New Hampshire primary voters in 2008, according to entrance and exit polls. But they made up 19 percent of Democratic voters overall in that year’s contests, and much higher percentages in the 13 following states, listed in their order of voting this year: South Carolina (55 percent), Alabama (51 percent), Georgia (51 percent), Tennessee (29 percent), Virginia (30 percent), Louisiana (48 percent), Mississippi (50 percent), Michigan (23 percent), Illinois (24 percent), North Carolina (34 percent), Maryland (37 percent), Delaware (28 percent) and New Jersey (23 percent). These states elected 1,059 pledged delegates, 29 percent of the 3,636 total.
In addition, blacks make up between 15 and 19 percent in the following nine states: Nevada (15 percent), Arkansas (17 percent) Texas (19 percent), Florida (19 percent), Missouri (17 percent), Ohio (18 percent), New York (16 percent), Pennsylvania (15 percent) andIndiana (17 percent). These states elected 1,164 pledged delegates, 30 percent of the total. Overall, the 21 states with electorates 15 percent plus black in 2008 elect 2,223 pledged delegates, 61 percent of the total.
As I have noted over the years, black Americans tend to vote pretty close to unanimously, not only for one party but also for one candidate in contested primaries. They voted overwhelming Republican from the 1860s to the 1930s and overwhelming Democratic from the 1960s to today. In primaries, they have overwhelmingly favored one candidate with good civil rights credentials over another (Robert Kennedy over Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton 2008). Such unity is a rational response for voters who feel themselves to be part of a self-conscious and disadvantaged minority. In 2008 Obama won majorities of black voters over Clinton in every one of the 22 states listed above, ranging from 61 to 37 percent in Clinton’s New York to 93 to 5 percent in Obama’s Illinois. Overall he carried black voters by an 82 to 15 percent margin.
For 2016 do the math. If Clinton can carry black voters by a similar margin, something not inconsistent with current polling, then in a state with a 50 percent black electorate, Sanders would have to carry non-black voters by an 82 to 15 percent margin to win. Not going to happen. In a state with a 20 percent black electorate, Sanders would have to carry non-black voters by something like a 57 to 40 percent margin. A tall order, especially in those states with high percentages of Hispanic voters, who voted heavily for Clinton over Obama in 2008.
So the better Sanders is doing with white left-liberals and Millennials, the more Hillary Clinton has an incentive to stick close to and praise Obama, even if that’s not a good stance for a general election in a year when most voters are seeking change.
