A genuine political crisis appears to be brewing in California. The state is already in flames as the latest wildfire continues to scorch everything in its path around Santa Barbara. But there is smoke to indicate the approach of a political crisis that could arrive May 19 when California voters cast ballots on six proposals submitted by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the California Assembly to deal with the state’s yawning budget deficit.
Blogger W. C. Varones points to the latest survey by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) of 1,080 likely voters and finds opposition to the six ballot proposals officials say must be approved if the state is to avoid dramatic cuts in essential services. Proposition 1A is the most controversial of the ballot measures because it confirms a $16 billion, four-year tax hike approved earlier this year by Schwarzenegger and the Assembly in their effort to close state government’s $42 billion budget deficit.
Go here to Ballotpedia for a detailed description of the California ballot measures, and other information, including cumulative survey results for each of the six proposals.
The latest PPIC survey finds 52 percent of those surveyed saying they oppose the proposals, compared to 35 percent who approve of them. The numbers a week ago were closer, with 49 percent opposed and 40 percent supporting. But the significance is less in the three-percentage point increase in opposition or five-point decrease in support; it’s the context in which the trend happened.
As Varones notes, opposition deepened despite a major public relations and advertising effort by proponents: “Last week, we noted that Proposition 1A was going down 40-49, but that the politicians and special interests were beginning a big-dollar media blitz to promote it. Well, after millions in ad spending and Schwarzenegger threatening to let California burn unless we pass his tax increase, have the people been cowed?”
The PPIC survey results suggest the answer is no. Since proponents will be spending more between now and May 19, it is conceivable the margin by which opponents lead in the survey could, contrary to the usual pattern, actually grow bigger.
It appears lots of Californians simply aren’t buying the line from state politicians that they cut everything that could be cut and thus tax increases are the only solution to the deficit. If the ballot proposals go down to defeat May 19, things could get real ugly as record numbers of state bureaucrats are furloughed or laid off and essential services such as fire and police are reduced.
