The impact of the coronavirus on the presidential election, now eight months away, is unknowable. Heck, no one can say that many of us won’t still be sheltering at home in November to avoid infection, although that seems unlikely.
What was once President Trump’s strongest card, the economy, might instead be a very unfunny joker. Rather than brisk growth, historically low joblessness, and markets at all-time highs, America faces a cataclysmic depression. Goldman Sachs predicts a 24% contraction in the second quarter, more than double the previous worst downturn. Unemployment claims are spiking by the millions as commerce shudders to a halt.
Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz says this could mean “landslide” defeat for Trump, who is alive to this danger and wants America humming again soon. For this, Trump is cynically accused of cynicism, as I point out. But responsible government should try to “flatten the curve” of infections without simultaneously flattening the economy.
Will voters blame Trump or reward him for his crisis management? Partisans portray his response either as culpably incompetent and vicious or as effective, vigorous, and humane. What’s certain is that Trump is the focus of attention — when is he not? — as America seeks leadership amid anxiety.
James Antle explains that Trump has the immense advantage of possessing the bully pulpit and hogs even more limelight than usual. The public, forgivably fixated on news, tunes in to Trump’s daily briefings, and approval of him has risen sharply. News media fret about this and ponder stopping coverage of the briefings. They say they don’t want people misled by presidential lies, but one doubts they’d be as punctilious if Trump’s support were collapsing.
Elections are choices, and, in case you’d forgotten, there is also a Democrat in the presidential race. The blue party’s presumptive nominee, Joe Biden, has the blues, holed up in his basement in Delaware, struggling to be noticed. When he is, as with his bumbling attempts to seem commanding (amateurishly livestreamed by his campaign), it doesn’t do him much good. As Joe Simonson explains, Biden is upstaged by Trump. Even prominent Democrats, such as David Axelrod, express contempt at the former vice president’s botched efforts to seize the political opportunity the pandemic presents him.
There are more viral offerings in Life & Arts, but also escapes from anything to do with the coronavirus. You can join Seth Mandel in Emily St. John Mandel’s apocalyptic novels, Station Eleven and The Glass Hotel, or ponder with Eric Felten the nonzero probabilities of various calamities, including that a 700-year-old castle will crumble beneath you and drop you to your doom. Or you can return, carefree, with Daniel Ross Goodman to the early 19th century for the latest screen adaptation of Jane Austen’s Emma, or catch Rob Long at a vulnerably contented moment in the middle of a hearty meal.
