Russia has successfully tested a ground-based anti-satellite weapon, the PL-19 Nudol.
The State Department condemned the test, observing that Russia had destroyed one of its Soviet-era satellites at an altitude of approximately 300 miles. This has created a debris field of at least 1,500 separate fragments in low Earth orbit. This debris field now threatens other satellites and perhaps even manned space operations such as the International Space Station.
Put another way, Russia has thrown a fragmentation grenade into space.
A Russian expert observed to Kommersant that this is Moscow’s first actual destruction of an orbital object since the end of the Cold War. And although this debris field is attracting controversy in the West, it also allows Moscow both to prove and to show that its weapon really works. Centered on a kill vehicle that uses its own mass as its weapon versus an explosive warhead, the Nudol is built off of an existing ballistic missile defense system. With a low Earth orbit kill range, the Nudol could target spy satellites and some communications satellites — but not GPS systems and other communication satellites in higher orbits. Those higher-altitude satellites could instead be targeted by Russia’s space-based anti-satellite weapons.
Second, Russia wants to broadcast strength to the United States and China. Beijing, after all, recently tested a hypersonic glide vehicle. For all their public flattery, Beijing and Moscow are rivals who mistrust each other.
The U.S. remains Vladimir Putin’s main enemy. Russia will want to leverage this success, and the ensuing debris field, to pressure the U.S. into a more concessionary stance in arms control negotiations. This test puts the Biden administration under pressure, forcing it to choose between escalation or concessionary compromise. Concession, in Russia’s aspiration, would entail U.S. cuts to its own ballistic missile and missile defense systems without enforceable reciprocation on Russia’s part. Considering President Joe Biden’s policy toward Russia thus far, Putin has good reason to think Biden will choose concession.
Third, this test allows Putin to leverage the domestic image of a strong leader who has made Russia great again. Facing an increasingly uncertain political landscape, Putin has upped his repression. But this show of undeniable technical capability will allow Putin to stoke the nationalist patriotism that sustains his base. Expect state media to make much of the news — and of the West’s alarm over it.
This is just another wake-up call for the new era we have entered. Space is a central war-fighting domain. The Space Force has its work cut out for it.
